Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Builds Momentum to Break Through Key Resistance, Is the $4400 Target Approaching?

Last week, Ethereum (ETH) prices generally remained sideways with fluctuations. On the surface, the market seemed calm, but technical charts and on-chain data revealed clear signals of structural change. Multiple indicators show that Ethereum is building a potential medium-term reversal pattern, while the selling pressure from long-term holders has significantly decreased. This combination is relatively rare in history.

From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, Ethereum is forming a classic inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is one of the more reliable bullish reversal structures in the crypto market. The neckline of the current pattern is around $3400 and appears relatively flat. Historical experience suggests that once a flat neckline is effectively broken, it is often accompanied by a stronger trend upward. Based on this pattern, once ETH breaks above the neckline with increased volume, the theoretical target price could reach around $4400.

On-chain data further enhances the credibility of this technical signal. Net position changes of long-term holders show that since late November, the selling volume of long-term Ethereum holders has dropped significantly. Previously, over 1.1 million ETH were sold, but by late December, this number had decreased to about 54,000 ETH, a reduction of over 95%. Historically, long-term holders tend to stop selling near important trend inflection points, indicating that market supply is tightening noticeably.

Cost basis analysis reveals key areas that Ethereum needs to break through in the short term. The most critical cost-intensive zone is between $3150 and $3173, where approximately 2.94 million ETH have been bought, forming a clear supply wall. If the price can hold above this zone, it will lay the foundation for further challenge of the $3400 neckline. Based on current price levels, this upward space is about 7%.

Once Ethereum successfully breaks above $3400, subsequent resistance will be relatively limited. Resistance between $3480 and $4170 will be sparse, and the price is expected to gradually approach the $4400 target.

Of course, risks are also clear. If ETH falls below $2800, the reversal structure will be significantly weakened; if it further drops below $2620, the bullish pattern will be completely invalidated. Considering the technical pattern, on-chain selling pressure, and cost structure, Ethereum is still in a potential upward window, with the key being whether it can effectively break through the core resistance zone at $3150.