Analysts point out that Bitcoin is hovering near the “critically important long-term support line,” and it has struggled to hold this level for 3 weeks, leaving the long positions in the market on edge. However, as the largest Bitcoin holder in the world, the publicly traded company Strategy (MSTR) has already seen its stock price break this “safety line,” sending a strong bearish signal to the crypto assets market.
CoinDesk senior analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole explained that this “safety line” is the extremely critical “100-week Simple Moving Average (100-week SMA)” in technical analysis, which mainly reflects the average cost over the past two years. It is used by major market technical analysts to identify significant trend reversals, long-term support, or confirm crashes.
From the trend perspective, the 100-week moving average has provided strong support for three consecutive weeks, allowing Bitcoin to halt its severe fall from the historical high of 126,000 USD.
Omkar Godbole describes this moving average as a “safety net” that successfully catches Bitcoin when the price falls.
If the coin price can rebound here, the market will expect this support to act as a “springboard”, becoming the starting point for a new wave of counterattack; on the contrary, once the coin price falls below the 100-week moving average, it may lead to a loss of confidence among holders, increased selling pressure, allowing the bears to gain further control, and the downtrend may also expand accordingly.
Concerningly, the stock price trend of Strategy (MSTR) seems to have already rehearsed the worst-case scenario. Please see the trend comparison in the chart below:
The MSTR stock price fell below the 100-week moving average when it dropped to $220 in early November, and the selling pressure continued to expand, causing the stock price to drop all the way down to $160, a decline of over 60% from this year's high of $457.
For Bitcoin long positions, this is a signal that cannot be ignored, as MSTR has previously led Bitcoin trends multiple times. Earlier, when MSTR fell below the 50-week SMA, which is also considered a long-term trend watershed, it also predicted that Bitcoin's subsequent market would weaken.
The current situation is very clear: Bitcoin long positions must defend the 100-week moving average at all costs.
If it can hold, this will become the starting point of a counterattack; if unfortunately it falls, Bitcoin may follow in MSTR's footsteps, sinking into a deeper fall.
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Tags: 100-week Simple Moving Average 100-week SMA Omkar Godbole Analysis of Crypto Assets Market Coin Price Investment Support Bitcoin Moving Average Trend
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