The realization of investor losses in Cardano (ADA) activity surged dramatically in December, marking one of the strongest capitulation phases since 2023. Since the beginning of the month, the total recorded losses by investors have exceeded $900 million (as of Friday).
Actual Profit/Loss of ADA | Source: Santiment This trend stems from a prolonged wave of pessimism following the crash on 10/10, which wiped out all the gains accumulated over more than 14 months prior.
As the price plunged back to around $0.35, all ADA investors are currently experiencing an average loss of about 40%. Notably, even new investors who entered the market within the past 365 days are facing similar losses.
Under increasing pressure, most investors were forced to accelerate their stop-loss activities throughout December.
ADA MVRV Ratio and 365-Day MVRV Ratio | Source: Santiment## Whales Drive Selling Pressure as Open Interest Declines
In the spot market, a strong sell-off wave occurred, mainly driven by wallets holding 1–10 million ADA. Since the start of the month, the total ADA controlled by this large investor group has decreased by approximately 130 million ADA, indicating significant selling pressure.
In the derivatives market, cautious sentiment remains dominant. The open interest (OI) in ADA futures remains low, around $657 million as of Friday, reflecting that most traders continue to observe from the sidelines after the sharp crash on 10/10.
Cardano Open Interest Volume | Source: Coinglass As of Saturday’s report, ADA is trading around $0.37, showing a slight recovery of about 4% from previous levels.
Cardano Price Forecast: ADA Faces Resistance at $0.37
ADA has experienced a notable rebound from the $0.34 zone and is now approaching a key resistance area around $0.37. Interestingly, this price zone coincides with the upper boundary of the downtrend channel and is reinforced by the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), a technical resistance level that has repeatedly rejected upward moves since the sharp decline on 10/10.
ADA/USDT Daily Chart | Source: TradingView In a positive scenario, if ADA can decisively break above the downtrend channel, the next target would be around $0.51. However, before establishing a clear bullish trend, the price needs to successfully overcome the 50-day EMA. Conversely, if selling pressure resumes, the $0.34 zone is likely to continue serving as the nearest support.
In terms of momentum, the RSI indicator remains below the neutral threshold and is currently testing its own moving average, indicating that buying pressure has not yet fully taken over. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) shows signs of recovery from oversold levels, opening the possibility of a technical rebound in the short term.
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