What You Need to Know About Bitcoin Outlook in 2026

Recently, the US Fed confirmed its third consecutive interest rate cut in 2025. Prior to the announcement, most analysts believed that Bitcoin and risk assets would benefit from this decision.

However, contrary to expectations, Bitcoin’s price dropped sharply from over $93,000 on Thursday to below $90,000 within 24 hours, resulting in over $138 million in liquidations on the market. This unexpected development reflects intense selling pressure that has persisted for several months, mainly originating from long-term holders.

Bitcoin selling pressure from long-term holders | Source: Bravos ResearchLarge inflows from veteran “whales” withdrawing from the market have weakened demand, causing upward price movements to be restrained. It is highly likely that these whales are choosing to sell now to capitalize on liquidity without causing a major price shock. Unfortunately, this sell-off wave has also negatively impacted investor sentiment.

However, according to experts, the current price suppression trend is unlikely to last long. Many optimistic Bitcoin price forecasts still receive support, especially as the number of institutions and individuals holding over 1,000 BTC is growing rapidly.

Number of “whales” with over 1,000 BTC | Source: Bravos Research The number of whales continuously buying Bitcoin indicates they are taking advantage of the current deep discount levels.

Bullish Outlook for Bitcoin: New Momentum in Early 2026

The active buying by whales is an important signal for Bitcoin’s recovery process. However, this is not the only factor predicting a new bullish cycle.

Source: Stablecoin and BTC reserve ratio The reserve ratio between Bitcoin and stablecoins shows a close relationship between this digital currency and market liquidity. According to historical models, capital usually returns to Bitcoin when this ratio drops below 1. Currently, this ratio remains below 1, indicating significant liquidity waiting to flow into Bitcoin once positive signals emerge.

It is also worth noting that whales and smart money tend to act earlier than most stablecoin investors, helping to lead market trends.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: $109,000 – Key Milestone to Watch

Analysts at Bravos believe that the recent appearance of the “death cross” pattern on Bitcoin’s price chart is the reason behind the dominance of the sellers. History shows that after each “death cross,” the upward movement tends to be limited, and this is the current situation. This accumulation phase could end if Bitcoin breaks above the long-term moving average.

Market data indicates that Bitcoin is likely to recover to near the long-term moving average, around $109,000. Surpassing this threshold will significantly strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trend on the price chart.

Additionally, increased institutional investment from giants like BlackRock and Vanguard is a crucial supporting factor, making further deep price declines less likely. Notably, Vanguard’s official approval for investors to participate in Bitcoin ETF funds is considered a major step forward, not only due to its financial strength but also because of its long-term investment approach.

Companies like Vanguard focus on long-term capital allocation, including funds from retirement accounts. This means that new capital flowing into Bitcoin will aim for sustainable, long-term investment goals.

Mr. Giáo