Pi Network core team dumps! 2 million tokens flow out, price crashes to $0.2

December 11, Pi Network declined for the fifth consecutive trading day, with the price hovering around $0.20. PiScan data shows that the liquidity reserve wallet of the Pi core team transferred out 2 million PI tokens, exacerbating market pessimism. Technical indicators show that PI broke below the Supertrend indicator line, signaling a sell, and RSI dropped to 35, approaching oversold territory.

Pi Network Core Team Sell-off History: 50 Million Tokens Transfer Sparks Trust Crisis

(Source: PiScan)

The token transfer behavior of the Pi core team is not the first time to trigger market panic. Two months ago, a larger transfer of 50 million Pi tokens became a hot topic in the community. These tokens were transferred from a wallet controlled by the core team to another address, which then made multiple deposits into OKX exchange. As of Thursday, the wallet held less than 48 million tokens, having previously deposited over 3 million tokens into OKX.

This transfer pattern is viewed by crypto communities as a typical “gradual sell-off.” Project teams generally do not deposit large amounts of tokens into exchanges all at once, as it would trigger panic and cause prices to crash. Instead, they disperse tokens across multiple wallets and then deposit small amounts gradually to sell, minimizing market impact. However, even with this strategy, the cumulative deposit of 3 million tokens still exerted significant selling pressure on Pi Network’s price.

The official explanation for these transfers is “strategic supply distribution for rewards or operations.” This explanation might be technically plausible, as the project indeed needs tokens to cover development costs, marketing expenses, and community rewards. However, the lack of transparency regarding token flows and vague explanations about their uses make it difficult for the community to verify these claims. When tokens eventually appear on exchanges, regardless of the official explanation, the market interprets it as a signal: insiders are selling.

Although the recent transfer of 2 million tokens is relatively small, it occurred amid a four-day streak of declining prices, making the timing extremely sensitive. The market is already fragile, and the core team’s large-scale token transfers at this moment are seen as bearish signals, intensifying pessimism. As of Thursday, due to the core team possibly consolidating holdings, the overall negative sentiment around Pi Network has deepened.

Three Major Concerns Triggered by Core Team Pi Token Transfers

Severe Lack of Transparency: Official sources have not detailed the purpose and subsequent flow of transfers, leaving the community to track through blockchain explorers.

Sensitive Timing: Conducting large-scale transfers during a continuous price decline can be interpreted as dumping at high levels.

Historical Precedents: Two months ago, a transfer of 50 million tokens led to a large influx of tokens into exchanges, setting a bad precedent.

Technical Breakdown: Final Support at $0.1919

(Source: TradingView)

Pi Network has declined over 6% this week, continuing last week’s 7% drop. The weekly decline triggered a sell signal, breaking below the Supertrend indicator line, with the price approaching $0.2200. The downward trend is slowly approaching the October 11 low of $0.1919, which is seen as a crucial support level. If this support is broken, the October 10 low of $0.1533 will become the historical low support for PI tokens.

The Supertrend indicator is a trend-following tool that calculates dynamic support and resistance levels based on the Average True Range (ATR). When the price breaks below the Supertrend line, the signal shifts from bullish to bearish, indicating a trend reversal. The break below the Supertrend on Tuesday means the short-term upward trend has ended, and the market enters a downtrend. From the current price of $0.20 to the support at $0.1919, there is only about 4% buffer, making the market extremely vulnerable near support levels.

Momentum indicators on the daily chart also show bearish tendencies. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35, continuing to decline toward oversold territory, indicating increasing selling pressure. An RSI below 30 is considered oversold and often triggers a technical rebound. However, the current RSI of 35, while close to oversold, has not yet entered that zone, suggesting that downward momentum is still present, and prices may fall further.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signal line has crossed below zero, with the red histogram bars increasing in the negative direction. This indicates strengthening bearish momentum. MACD, composed of the 12-day EMA (fast line) and 26-day EMA (slow line), signals accelerating declines when the fast line stays below zero and the gap widens. The current MACD pattern is typical of an accelerating downtrend.

The significance of the $0.1919 support is that it is one of the key lows since the mainnet launched. Holding this level would imply the market found buyers’ support here, potentially forming a double bottom or multiple bottom pattern. Falling below would open the downside toward the all-time low of $0.1533, about 23% lower from the current price. For Pi Network, which has fallen for five days straight, this decline would further erode holder confidence.

Rebound Path and Risk Management

On the upside, PI might rebound from $0.1919 and test the 50-day exponential moving average (located at $0.2364). To confirm an upward trend, PI needs to break through the Supertrend indicator line at $0.2500. This would require a roughly 25% rise from the current price and breaking through two technical resistance levels.

However, given the current market environment, such a rebound appears less likely. Continuous token transfers by the core team create selling pressure, technical indicators are overwhelmingly bearish, and market confidence is severely lacking. Even if RSI enters oversold territory and triggers a short-term rebound, it is likely to be temporary rather than a trend reversal. Investors should view any rebound as an opportunity to reduce positions, not to increase holdings.

For Pi Network holders, risk management is paramount. If the price drops below $0.1919, it is advisable to set stop-loss orders to exit positions immediately. Waiting for the price to stabilize near $0.1533 before re-entering is prudent. If choosing to hold, investors must accept the risk of further declines toward the all-time low and ensure that this portion of their portfolio does not exceed their risk tolerance.

For bottom-fishing investors, it is recommended to wait for clear reversal signals before acting. Such signals include: price holding at $0.1919 with increased volume and a rebound; RSI entering oversold and then turning upward; MACD showing bullish divergence or a golden cross; and the core team ceasing token transfers and releasing transparent governance reports. Until these conditions are met, any bottom-fishing attempt may face the risk of further downside.