Bitcoin is at a crossroads after Trump's customs tax shock: Heading towards $106k or a new ATH?

Bitcoin is struggling with increased volatility following a major sell-off triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s abrupt announcement of a 50% tariff on all EU imports effective June 1. This unexpected macroeconomic move has shocked assets, and Bitcoin is no exception, falling sharply from an all-time high of nearly 111,800 dollars to a low of around 107,500 dollars in just a few hours. Although there was a brief recovery to the level of 109,000 dollars, the subsequent price movement currently shows a fierce battle between the bulls and the bears, with technical analysis on the 1-hour candle timeframe indicating two ways Bitcoin could play out this week. The Bitcoin Compression Structure Between Reasonable Value Gaps According to cryptocurrency analyst TehThomas, the current price structure of Bitcoin is determined by two opposing reasonable value gaps 1 hour (FVG). The lower FVG zone identified by the analyst is around 107,500 dollars, which appeared during the price surge to the ATH of 111,814 dollars and is currently serving as the first key reaction point after the price increase. The FVG range above is between $109,800 and $110,700. This level, previously the bottom of the breakout candle, has turned into strong resistance on Friday. Interestingly, a rejection has been confirmed within this FVG, indicating that there are many sellers present in that area. Notably, the 1-hour chart shared by the analyst indicates a stalemate scenario for the price of Bitcoin. A breakout above or below the defined reasonable value ranges may determine the trend for Bitcoin’s next major move.

The next impulsive move of Bitcoin may come with confirmation of volume, either a bullish breakout past resistance or a bearish rejection pushing the price of Bitcoin down to a lower demand target.

Price Increase and Decrease Scenarios for Bitcoin Interestingly, since the analysis, the next price action has been marked by Bitcoin’s inability to reclaim the upper FVG and more consolidation around the lower FVG at the $107,500 level. This underscores the most significant implications around this level, as Bitcoin’s reaction here could trigger either a bullish recovery or a significant price retracement. In a bullish scenario, a recovery at a lower FVG will drive the price of Bitcoin towards a higher FVG. A sustained move above the higher FVG at $110,700 will indicate a bullish recovery and could bring the new all-time high around $113,000 back into focus. In the case of a price fall scenario, especially if the level of $107,500 is completely lost, the path opens up for a move towards $106,000. This level aligns with the remaining liquidity group after the consolidation process at the beginning of last week. If the structure falls below $106,000, sellers may take control in the short term.