The rate of Bitcoin trading between US and international exchanges signals price increase in 2025

! U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchanges are slowly regaining influence over Bitcoin transfer volumes (BTC), a signal that could signal the beginning of a new bull cycle in the second half of 2025.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. said the “US vs. off-shore ratio” index — which measures the volume of BTC transfers between U.S.-regulated exchanges and foreign exchanges — recorded a marked decline in the dominance of U.S. exchanges after BTC hit a historic peak in January. However, the chart shows that a trend reversal is taking place, which means that BTC transfer volumes on US exchanges are starting to increase again, coinciding with the pattern of previous bull runs.

! Graph of total Bitcoin transfer rates (Mỹ compared to ngoài). Source: X.com Another important technical indicator in the chart is the 90-day (SMA) simple moving average that has crossed above the 365-day SMA – a signal that usually appears before strong bull runs. For example, when this signal appeared at the price of $60,000, Bitcoin initiated a significant rally within just one week. Therefore, a new price hike in the coming weeks is quite possible.

Besides, on-chain analyst Boris Vest said that Bitcoin is still undervalued. In an article on CryptoQuant, he said BTC reserves on exchanges have fallen to their lowest level since 2018, to just 2.43 million BTC compared to 3.4 million BTC in 2021 — reflecting long-term holding trends and declining circulating supply.

The stablecoin supply ratio on Bitcoin (SSR) currently stands at 14.3 — lower than the 2021 average — suggesting that there is still plenty of room for purchasing power. Boris commented:

*“Since SSR has not reached the level of 2021, it can be concluded that Bitcoin is still undervalued. This suggests that the bull market and buying pressure are likely to continue.” *

Bitcoin surpasses key indicator, paves way to $90,000 mark

Market analyst Dom also emphasized that Bitcoin’s recent rally has coincided with BTC moving its monthly VWAP indicator from resistance to support for the first time since January.

! Dom’s Bitcoin analysis. Source: X.comVWAP – a volume-weighted average price indicator – is often used to identify trends, support and resistance, as well as assess whether assets are overbought or oversold. Dom shared:

“Buyers have held both of these support zones for 4 consecutive days – something the market hasn’t seen in months. If BTC breaks out of yesterday’s peak, I believe it will get close to the $90,000 region.”

However, Alphractal founder João Wedson remained cautious as BTC approached the $86,000 mark. He suggested that if BTC crosses this mark, waiting for a correction is the logical option; Conversely, the bears could regain control. This is also a view consistent with Alphractal’s analysis, which considers the $86,300 area as an important resistance level and risks becoming a (bull trap) bullish trap.

Disclaimer:*** The article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions

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Heather

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