According to CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan, despite Bitcoin’s (BTC) price increase in the current cycle, the market is exhibiting an unusually calm behavior compared to previous bull runs.
Dan, in a recent analysis, pointed out the lack of “explosive new funds and participants” and indicated both macroeconomic conditions and changing market dynamics as the primary reasons for this deviation.
Dan said, “In past cycles, the market typically heats up quickly with strong rallies and a large influx of short-term holders,” and added: “However, this time, the percentage of Bitcoin held from one week to one month is significantly lower than before. This indicates a notable absence of speculative capital and new individual participants.”
And he attributes this change to two fundamental factors:
- Changing Liquidity Environment: Dan explained, “The 2020-2021 bull run occurred in an environment of near-zero interest rates and aggressive quantitative easing” and added, “Now we are in a phase of high interest rates and tight liquidity. Capital flows are no longer free, and it has become more difficult to achieve large-scale fluctuations.”
- Institutional Dominance: According to Dan, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has structurally changed the market. The analyst stated, “In the past, momentum was driven by individual investors. Now, with institutional capital taking the lead, we are seeing a more controlled, staircase-like increase in Bitcoin prices instead of the rapid and emotional rallies of the past.”
This cautious institutional behavior is also reflected in on-chain data, which some analysts suggest may currently indicate a cycle peak. However, Dan believes that the current phase does not mean a traditional boom and bust trajectory. Instead, he anticipates a longer and more complex market structure in the future.
Dan said, “ETF inflows are still continuing, and if the macro environment gradually loosens, we could see meaningful trends emerging in 2025.”
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