As the Good Friday holiday ( is approaching in the US, crypto investors are focusing their attention on four key economic indicators that will be released this week. Each indicator has the potential to impact the prices of digital assets.
From Consumer Inflation Expectations )CPI( to the Number of Initial Jobless Claims, below is how these economic data points could impact Bitcoin prices and the crypto market this week.
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Scheduled to be released on Monday, the New York Federal Reserve’s March CPI Expectations Survey will reveal how Americans anticipate prices will change over the next year.
Recent data shows that expectations have risen from 3% in January to 3.1% in February, indicating that concerns about inflation are increasing. The general forecast from economists is to continue rising to 3.3%.
Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s consumer survey shows that inflation expectations have surged to their highest level since 1981.
!)[crypto]https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-4921d3f2189588dd0be82bef74ee0e55(One-year inflation expectations | Source: University of Michigan “Consumer pessimism about future inflation has reached a new high since 1981, as expectations surged from 4.9% last month to 6.7% in April. Just three months ago, consumers were predicting inflation at 3.3% for the next year,” a user commented.
Combined with the turbulent market following the rise in U.S. government bond yields on Friday, this further exacerbates the predicament faced by the Federal Reserve )Fed(. The minutes from the Fed’s March meeting show that a majority of officials believe inflation will be more persistent, while Trump’s tariff policies could drive prices higher.
This explains why the Fed remains steadfast in its cautious stance and continues to assess economic data before adjusting policy.
In the crypto market, concerns about rising inflation often drive interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against risk, due to its limited supply. However, if inflation expectations rise too sharply, worries about the Fed tightening policy could put pressure on risk assets such as digital currencies.
If volatility increases, the trading volume of stablecoins like USDT may surge as investors seek refuge. Conversely, if the figures are lower than expected, altcoins will benefit as risk appetite returns.
U.S. Retail Sales
The US Retail Sales report on Wednesday measures consumer spending in March compared to the same period last year and is an important indicator of the economic situation. February data showed a modest increase from 1.9% to 3.1%, but tax levels and trade tensions could dampen the results for March.
“Pay attention to the latest inflation data and the midweek retail figures. They could impact the Fed’s next move,” investor George noted.
Strong retail sales often indicate high consumer confidence, which can boost the stock market and potentially drive coin prices down as investors shift towards traditional markets. Conversely, weak sales may reinforce concerns about economic recession, causing capital to flow into decentralized assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum )ETH(, or Solana )SOL(.
The correlation between crypto and consumer psychology is becoming increasingly evident, with Bitcoin often reacting to spending trends. Therefore, the market is likely to be highly volatile this week.
Industrial output
The Fed’s Industrial Production report for March will also be released on Wednesday, tracking the month-to-month changes in manufacturing, mining, and utility services.
The reduction to 0.7% in February has raised concerns about the slowdown of the economy and another decline – with economists forecasting a decrease of 0.2% – could signal more serious risks.
In the crypto market, weak industrial output often reinforces the narrative of decentralization, thereby increasing interest in blockchain projects. However, if the downturn persists, it could cause widespread panic, severely impacting highly speculative tokens.
On the contrary, strong production data may help stabilize the market, reducing the appeal of crypto as a safe haven, but supporting DeFi platforms linked to real assets. Bitcoin miners, who are heavily reliant on energy costs, may come under pressure if utility output )such as electricity( declines.
“In a capital-intensive industry like Bitcoin mining, policy stability is extremely important and currently, it is very lacking,” Jaran Mellerud, CEO of Hashlabs Mining, recently shared.
Traders should closely monitor the leverage ratio in the futures market, as unexpected data can trigger a wave of liquidations, especially for small-cap coins.
First-time unemployment benefit application number
The report on the number of initial unemployment benefit applications submitted on Thursday reflects the number of new unemployment applicants, providing a quick insight into the labor market situation.
The data from last week showed that the number of claims rose to 223,000, compared to 219,000 the previous week, signaling that the labor market is showing signs of slowing down. If the number of claims surges, it could raise concerns about an economic downturn, driving money into Bitcoin as a store of value. However, altcoins may be negatively impacted due to risk-averse sentiment.
However, with the upcoming Good Friday ) holiday, liquidity in the market may decrease, causing price fluctuations to become more pronounced. Trading volumes during holidays are usually low, making prices more susceptible to excessive impacts from news or new data.
!()https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-5c87b0953dc5e963ffdf3ae258405976[bitcoin]BTC price chart 4 hours | Source: TradingviewAt the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is trading at 84,613 dollars, down only 0.17% in the past 24 hours.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do their own research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.
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Minh Anh
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