Solana ( SOL ) surged 30% – But what risks are lurking behind?

Although Solana (SOL) has just recorded a recovery above the $120 threshold, market sentiment still leans towards the negative, especially as large investors continue to suffer significant losses.

On-chain data shows that a “whale” has sold 274,188 SOL at an average price of $108, while the initial purchase price was $148. This transaction forced the investor to accept a realized loss of up to $11 million.

Even though SOL is currently trading around $129 – which is more than a 30% recovery from the low of $95 on April 7 – this whale’s position is still deep in the red.

The profit-taking move during the market recovery reflects the distribution trend of large capital flows, rather than accumulating more. For retail investors, this is a signal that requires special attention in the context of macro factors and on-chain data that remain highly unpredictable.

Key supply regions are being closely monitored

The URPD indicator (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) provides an in-depth view of the price levels at which SOL has been traded recently, reflecting the behavior and sentiment of investors in the market.

With SOL, data shows that three large supply clusters are concentrated at the $100, $120, and $140 marks — key price zones where a significant amount of SOL has been accumulated. Notably, the $140 zone stands out with over 27.8 million SOL accumulated, equivalent to approximately 4.75% of the total circulating supply.

This turns the $140 area into a significant resistance level, where many investors are at breakeven or still facing unrealized losses. If SOL cannot break through this threshold, selling pressure from whales and large investors may increase, leading to a risk of correction.

Source: GlassnodeConversely, once the price returns and successfully conquers the $140 range, a large number of investors may shift to an unrealized profit state. This could trigger a wave of buying due to FOMO (fear of missing out on the opportunity) and greed — factors that often act as catalysts for strong price increases.

In addition, approximately 38 million SOL are currently accumulating in the price range of $117 to $120, creating a potential “hot spot” for profit-taking as the price approaches or surpasses this range.

Overall, until SOL can convincingly test and surpass the $140 range, price volatility is expected to continue to maintain strong intensity.

Futures contract data reinforces Solana’s market outlook

Solana leads in recovery speed after a surge of 7.07% in a day, outperforming most of the market.

The price increase is driven not only by the spot market – data from the derivatives market shows that the wave of bets on the bullish trend is making a strong comeback. The open interest (OI) has increased by 13.89%, reaching 5.23 billion USD – a clear sign that leverage is being pumped into the market at a rapid pace.

The surface is a positive signal, but behind it are factors that make this trend more fragile than ever.

The silent selling pressure from whale wallets has not yet stopped, while short-term investors – especially those holding for 3–6 months – are still “stuck” in the loss zone. Additionally, recently breaking through the thick supply zone around the $117–$120 mark has increased profit-taking pressure and the risk of liquidation.

Daily chart of SOL/USDT | Source: TradingViewIf Solana cannot maintain its upward momentum, the market may face a widespread Long liquidation, pushing prices down sharply – especially as the funding rate is gradually leaning towards positive, indicating that risk levels are accumulating.

In summary, although the current recovery pace has sparked new hopes, the underlying data still suggests that this is likely just a liquidity bounce – not enough to confirm a sustainable trend reversal.

Only when Solana clearly conquers and holds the resistance area of $140 can the downside risk be temporarily set aside.

You can view the price of SOL here.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making any decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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