The data emphasizes that $1,000 is the final bottom of ETH.

Ether, the native token of Ethereum, is showing signs of losing its upward momentum after a sharp decline of 65% over the past three months. The pace of the downtrend and the oversold condition are reflected in various ETH price metrics, leaving investors wondering if the market has reached its bottom.

ETH fractal indicates a potential drop to $1,000

Ether’s current price movements reflect the familiar fractal pattern seen in 2018 and 2022. In both cases, ETH saw euphoric bull runs, which ended in a sharp crash and a prolonged bear market.

Each of these cycles has the following main characteristics:

• A higher price peak accompanied by a lower peak in the relative strength index (RSI) is a typical sign of bearish divergence and weakening momentum.

ETH/USD Price Chart – 1 Week | Source: TradingView* After reaching the peak (cycle peak in the chart above), ETH has sharply declined, frequently falling below key Fibonacci levels.

• Cyclical bottoms often form when the RSI drops into the oversold zone below 30(, with prices stabilizing near past Fibonacci levels.

The current setup is similar to this structure.

In December 2024, Ether formed a higher peak of nearly $4,095, while the RSI created a lower peak, reflecting the bearish divergence seen in previous peaks.

This divergence marks the beginning of a strong correction, quite similar to the patterns seen in 2018 and 2022.

Currently, the price of ETH has closed below the Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0 at $1,550. Meanwhile, its weekly RSI remains above the oversold threshold of 30, indicating that the price could continue to decline, at least until this index drops below 30.

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-a83213fc4461cb69f5bd2c6689cfa91c(The weekly RSI performance chart of ETH/USD | Source: TradingViewFractal suggests that Ethereum may be in the final stages of the downturn, with the next potential price target in the range of $990 – $1,240, aligning with the Fibonacci retracement levels of 0.618 – 0.786.

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-7a6b03bc5054a4bf782c6bed59044195(Source: Mike McGlone## Ethereum NUPL falls into the ‘capitulation’ zone – Has the price reached the bottom?

The net unrealized profit/loss )NUPL( of Ethereum has entered the “capitulation” zone – an on-chain phase where most investors are holding ETH at a loss. In previous cycles, similar movements have occurred close to the major market bottoms.

! [])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-b4b9a88def7252800d9e53f964136976(Ethereum NUPL Price Chart | Source: GlassnodeIn March 2020, NUPL went negative just before ETH recovered sharply from the market crash caused by COVID-19. A similar pattern emerged in June 2022, when the metric fell into the capitulation zone just before Ethereum set a bear market low around $880.

Now ETH is once again entering this area, currently establishing a repeat of the previous bottoming phases – coinciding with important Fibonacci support levels near $1,000.

You can view the ETH price here.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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Viet Cuong

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