The risk of plummeting to $70,000 in the next 10 days is rising - This is the 'real bottom' of Bitcoin

Analysts say that the price of Bitcoin could drop to $70,000 in the next 10 days as a BTC pricing model suggests that the U.S.-led trade war could disrupt the sentiment around risk assets.

In his latest analysis on X, economist Timothy Peterson warned that Bitcoin could return to the ATH level of 2021.

$70,000 is the “real bottom” of Bitcoin

Expectations for Bitcoin’s price continue to deteriorate as the impact of “higher than expected” trade tariffs from the United States is strongly felt.

For Peterson, the current outlook includes the possibility of a sharp decline.

“Will Bitcoin drop to $70,000 in the next 10 days?” he asked.

A accompanying chart compares the bear markets of Bitcoin, including Peterson’s Lowest Price Forward (LPF) data, a measure of each long-term BTC bottom forecast.

“Although this chart is not a prediction, it provides expectations based on data about how Bitcoin may react in the future,” he continued.

“If BTC continues to follow the 75th bear market range, then $70,000 will be the actual bottom.”

Comparing Bitcoin’s bear market with LPF data | Source: Timothy PetersonPeterson notes that this theory is tied to the current LPF data, which last month indicated that BTC/USD is 95% likely to maintain the 2021 peak as a support level.

Previously, this data successfully set a floor price of $10,000 in mid-2020, and Bitcoin never dropped below this level after September of that year.

Peterson also revealed the probability in April, indicating that expectations for BTC prices are in a state of volatility.

“Bitcoin has shifted from a 75% chance of having a positive month to a 75% chance of having a negative month in just 2 days,” he summarized along with another exclusive chart.

Expectations for BTC price in April | Source: Timothy Peterson## Current price movement “often signals a bottom formation”

The bearish outlook of the Peterson model is not the only bearish warning that has emerged this week.

According to data from the analysis company Glassnode, many traders are trying to protect themselves from the chaos of the crypto market.

“The ( put) contracts are trading at higher levels than the ( call) contracts, signaling a surge in demand for downside price protection. This divergence is most pronounced in the short-term expirations, with a level of fear not seen since BTC was around $20,000 in mid-2023,” the company disclosed on X on April 4.

Delta deviation of Bitcoin options contracts | Source: GlassnodeHowever, Glassnode acknowledges that, despite being under pressure, the current price performance does not resemble the capitulation seen in stocks after the trade war.

“However, BTC has not broken down like stocks in light of recent tariff issues. The disconnection, when panic increases without a price collapse, makes the current options market setup particularly noteworthy,” the company continued.

“Such a deviation often occurs when fear rises. In summary: panic increases, but prices remain unchanged. This is often a signal of a potential bottom.”

You can check the price of BTC here.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making any decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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Viet Cuong

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