Altcoin is about to have one last major bullish wave, but only a few will benefit.

According to an analyst, altcoins may only have one final price surge in this cycle, but only those coins with real utility and strong network activity will be able to increase in value.

“I think there will be another price increase from altcoins. The question is whether it will be a prolonged increase lasting from 6 to 12 months?” said Real Vision’s chief analyst, Jamie Coutts, to Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal during a livestream on X on April 3.

Network activity will be the determining factor for transactions

“At this stage, I’m not too sure, but I believe that quality altcoins will attract activity back and the actions that drive prices will recover,” Coutts said.

As of January this year, there are more than 36 million altcoins in existence. However, Ethereum still accounts for the majority of the total value locked (TVL) at 55.56%, followed by Solana (6.89%), Bitcoin (5.77%), BNB Chain (5.68%), and Tron (5.54%), according to data from CoinGecko.

Coutts stated that traders should pay attention to where the network activity “is heading towards” and use that as a guiding principle for their trading, while also suggesting that the altcoin market will recover within the next two months.

“I predict that altcoins will really start to grow again in June. This is based on the hypothesis that Bitcoin will reach an all-time high (ATH) at that time.”

On March 28, Coutts said that Bitcoin could reach ATH before the end of Q2, regardless of whether there is greater clarity on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tax policies and fears of a recession.

The total market capitalization of crypto has decreased by about 8% over the past 30 days | Source: CoinMarketCapGlobal blockchain network activity has recently declined sharply amid the ongoing difficulties in the crypto market. On February 21, the number of active addresses on the Solana network dropped to an average of 9.5 million addresses per week in February, a decrease of nearly 40% compared to 15.6 million active addresses in November 2024.

Altcoin alert indicators

Meanwhile, some important indicators that the industry often uses to determine the upcoming altcoin season still show that this has not occurred. The Altcoin Speculation Index from Capriole Investments has dropped to 12%, down 53% since December 25, the same time when ETH fell 49% from a price of $3,490, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Altcoin Season Index, which measures the performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies compared to the performance of Bitcoin over the past 90 days, currently stands at only 14 points out of 100, indicating that the market is leaning towards Bitcoin’s dominance and is referred to as “Bitcoin Season.”

Altcoin Season Index | Source: CoinMarketCapHowever, while Bitcoin dominates – a metric often monitored to identify correction phases signaling altcoin season – currently at 62%, some analysts suggest it is no longer a significant signal for altcoin season as it once was.

CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Yu, recently stated that the dominance rate of Bitcoin “no longer determines altcoin season, but trading volume is the deciding factor.”

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making any decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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Dinh Dinh

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