Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing strong fluctuations ahead of Trump's 'liberation day' – What awaits ahead?

Bitcoin continued to experience strong volatility during the opening session of Wall Street on April 1 as concerns over U.S. trade tariffs made the market uneasy.

Bitcoin maintains volatility ahead of important tariffs

Data from TradingView shows that BTC/USD is fluctuating significantly within the weekly trading range, around the level of $84,000.

The US stock market opened with a slight decline, while gold prices adjusted from the historical peak of 3,149 USD/ounce.

Concerns about economic recession continue to rise as April 2 – referred to as “Liberation Day” by former U.S. President Donald Trump – approaches. Trump has pledged to announce a series of new trade tariffs at this time.

“The stock market is clearly pricing in a recession: The S&P 500 has fallen 2% since the Federal Reserve (Fed) began cutting interest rates in September 2024,” analyst Kobeissi Letter noted in a series of posts on X.

Kobeissi refers to the Fed’s loose monetary policy through interest rate cuts – a measure that is currently on hold. However, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the market expects cuts to continue in June.

The probability of the Fed’s target interest rate for the FOMC meeting on June 18 | Source: CME GroupAlthough this could be a clear catalyst for the bullish momentum of cryptocurrencies and risk assets, Kobeissi notes that history does not support a scenario of a strong recovery in the stock market under similar circumstances.

“When interest rates are cut during a recession, the S&P 500 index averages a decline of 6% over 6 months and loses 10% after 12 months,” Kobeissi wrote.

“The average profit after the pivot point only reached +1% in 6 months.”

Comparing the performance of the S&P 500 | Source: The Kobeissi Letter/XThe trading company QCP Capital also expressed a cautious outlook on the market amid increasingly pressuring macro factors.

“With consumer confidence falling to its lowest level in 12 years and the stock market plummeting with a decline of 4-5% each week, this may be the worst time,” the company stated in its latest newsletter sent to subscribers on its Telegram channel.

“There is a real risk that a strong and widespread tariff system could raise concerns about recession, leading to a decline in risk assets. However, political factors often create room for adjustment. If the tariff policy is applied more leniently than expected, the market may benefit from a temporary recovery.”

Bitcoin price approaches a key resistance level

The price movement of Bitcoin has market observers continuing to wait for stronger signals of growth momentum, even though the important support level at $80,000 remains firmly maintained.

“Today there is a slight increase in momentum, but this is still just a three-wave recovery, while the resistance level has not been broken,” the analysis channel More Crypto Online noted, based on the Elliott wave model on the 30-minute chart. This channel emphasizes that “the current upward momentum needs to be proven more.”

The BTC/USD chart on a 30-minute timeframe | Source: More Crypto Online/Senior Trader Jelle also emphasized that the BTC/USD pair is still holding above the (SMA) 50-week simple moving average, currently at $76,600, indicating that this is an important support level.

Jelle predicts that Bitcoin will soon recover to $84,500 in the next rally, after hitting this level and facing selling pressure earlier in the day.

Weekly BTC/USD chart with the 50 SMA line | Source: TradingViewMeanwhile, QCP Capital observes a bullish sentiment from investors as they target higher levels.

“At our trading desk, the inflow of funds indicates a positive trend right from the opening of the Asian market,” the company stated.

“We have noted concentrated call option buying in the $85,000-$90,000 range, while there are also risk-hedging orders around $75,000 – a sign reflecting confidence in a strong start to Q2.”

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do their own research before making any decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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