Trump's trade war puts pressure on the crypto market

Concerns about a global trade war continue to weigh on both traditional markets and the crypto market, as investors prepare to face the possibility of U.S. President Donald Trump announcing a series of new tariffs on April 2. This move could shape Bitcoin’s price trend throughout the next month.

Trump first announced tariffs on imported goods from China on January 20, the same day he was inaugurated as President of the United States. Concerns about global tariff policies have increased inflationary pressures, causing investors to be more cautious with risk assets. According to data from TradingView, Bitcoin dropped 18% and the S&P 500 (SPX) also lost over 7% in the two months following the first tariff announcement.

“April 2nd is becoming the center of attention as investors await new tariff announcements from the U.S.,” said Stella Zlatareva, editor at the digital asset investment platform Nexo.

S&P 500, BTC/USD, 1-day chart | Source: TradingViewMarket sentiment continues to be negatively affected on March 29, after the Washington Post reported that Trump urged senior advisers to take a tougher stance on import taxes, a move that could be seen as a sign of escalation in the trade war.

It is expected that the announcement on April 2 will provide details on retaliatory tariff measures targeting major trading partners of the United States. The goal of these measures is to reduce the estimated $1.2 trillion trade deficit in goods and to boost domestic production.

Bitcoin ETF and whales continue to accumulate

Despite the increasing instability, Bitcoin whales – large investors holding between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC – continue to accumulate.

The number of addresses in this group has slightly increased from 1,956 on January 1 to over 1,990 on March 27, according to data from Glassnode. However, this figure is still lower than the peak of the previous cycle, which reached 2,370 addresses in February 2024.

Number of whale addresses | Source: GlassnodeIliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo, commented:

“Risk appetite remains low due to tariff threats from President Trump and prolonged macroeconomic instability… However, the continued accumulation of BTC by whales and the inflow of capital into Bitcoin ETFs over the past 10 days indicates stable demand from institutions. Nevertheless, unexpected hawkish factors – from inflation or trade policy – could cause cryptocurrencies to fluctuate within a narrow range in April.”

However, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs stalled on March 28, when Fidelity’s ETF reported more than $93 million withdrawn from the market, while other ETF issuers did not record any inflows or outflows.

Bitcoin ETF Cash Flow | Source: Farside InvestorsDespite the market facing short-term fluctuations, analysts remain optimistic about the price trend of Bitcoin by the end of 2025, with predictions ranging from 160,000 USD to over 180,000 USD.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

• Bitcoin’s bottom is formed when the US Fed eases, and Trump is softer on tariffs.
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Justin

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