Will there be alt season in 2025? All arguments 'for' and 'against'

The cryptocurrency market operates in cycles, and one of the most anticipated moments for investors is alt season. This is a period when alternative cryptocurrencies outperform bitcoin in terms of growth rates, bringing enthusiasts huge profits. This time, alt season was predicted at the end of 2024. But we only saw a brief increase.
The next wave of enthusiasm came at the beginning of 2025 and was caused by the arrival of the pro-cryptocurrency administration of Trump to power in the USA. But even this excitement gradually fades. The rollback from unrealized promises and hopes turned out to be painful. In one day, catastrophic liquidations exceeded the market crash during COVID-2019 and FTX bankruptcies. The situation is complex, but has the potential for the start of this year's alt season been lost? Let's see what the analysts say.
The first alt season occurred in 2017 against the backdrop of the ICO boom, and the second one happened in 2021, fueled by institutional adoption and DeFi. Both times, altcoins followed a parabolic path after BTC dropped by 10-20%. Since the beginning of February, Bitcoin has been holding below the $100,000 mark more often than above it. The recent dip is related to the U.S. Department of Justice receiving approval to sell approximately 69,370 bitcoins seized in connection with the activities of the darknet market Silk Road. The total value of the assets is currently estimated at around $6.5 billion. A mass sell-off could cause a drop in BTC, so traders are frozen in anticipation.
The market capitalization of altcoins is currently $272 billion, according to TradingView data. However, Bitcoin's dominance stands at 61% as of February 11th, (, the highest level since the beginning of 2021. When Bitcoin's dominance rises, altcoins usually stagnate, and vice versa. Institutional interest in Bitcoin, particularly through Bitcoin spot ETFs and major financial institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity, ), further restricts the flow of capital into altcoins.
The altcoin season CMC index, which measures how altcoins are performing relative to Bitcoin, stands at 43 as of February 11, which is significantly below the necessary 75+ for the start of a full altcoin season.