New Thinking on Public Chain Valuation: Doubts about L1 Premium, Questioning ETH's Sovereign Status...

Is the monetary premium real? Will L2 have the same valuation when the on-chain activity is the same? Does ETH really have a sovereign premium (SOV) compared to Solana? This article is derived from taetaehoho's X platform research long article, and was compiled, compiled and written by Techflow. (Synopsis: Ethereumbig pump 13% stands at $2800 "Whale but dumps", ETH short-term high has arrived? (Background supplement: Inventory of the top 10 money-absorbing protocols: Ethereumon-chain is still the most profitable, pump.fun revenue boom) L1 premium, monetary, xREV/TEV...... Do these concepts really exist? Special thanks to @smyyguy and @purplepill3m for their review and feedback on this article. If you are not familiar with REV, you can read this article from @jon_charb. The following multiples are based on estimates as of October 30, 2024 at 12 noon ET. L2's profit is its revenue (including base and priority fees) minus on-chain operating costs (such as data calls, blobs, and validation costs for L1). Arbitrum, Optimism, Zksync, and Scroll have data for the last twelve months, while Blast has only three quarters (which inflates its multiples compared to other projects). ETH and Solana data are also for the past twelve months. A few notes: REV and L2 revenue are comparable metrics. L2 revenue is revenue before deducting carrier costs (sequencer costs), which is similar to REV. L2's DAO allocates a large number of tokens in the Token Generation Event (TGE). Part of the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of L2 can be attributed to the governance value, which is not present in the L1 token. Therefore, we mentally adjust the multiple of L2 upwards, but do not make this adjustment when discussing observations. A few direct observations: There is no clear "L1 premium" in terms of fully diluted valuation (FDV), but most L2 is not yet fully in circulation. However, in the Market Cap comparison, there is indeed an "L1 premium". (Arbitrum and OP have FDV/L2 revenues of about 100-250, while Ethereum and Solana have FDV/REV of about 118-140.) Optimism's trading multiples are significantly higher than those of other comparisons. Investors seem optimistic about its collective expansion. Through collective profit sharing (i.e., 15% of sequencer revenue and 2% of profit), the DAO has earned more net profit so far in Q4 than OP's L2 revenue. In terms of the total value accumulated to the treasury, the collective strategy is successful. Considering that Base alone contributes about $9 million to the collective treasury, a large-scale revenue-sharing grant in the future would be a good option. Limiting block space has nothing to do with increasing revenue. Arbitrum had a median fee of around $10 at the peak of liquidation, but its L2 profit was lower than Base. Token buyers are not pricing Scroll's rise (Market Cap is 3x L2 revenue). ZKP's L1 verification cost temporarily drops Zk rollups' profit margin. At this time, we have not seen the cost savings of state differences passed on to users. Please see the spreadsheet for details. Which brings me to a few questions: Is the monetary premium real? Or, will L2 have the same valuation when the on-chain activity is the same? Does ETH really have a sovereign premium (SOV) compared to Solana? (Ethereum's REV is mainly concentrated in the first and second quarters of 2024, is this premium noticeable if you only compare the most recent quarters?) UBS launched its first tokenized fund "Ethereum", what was TradFi's reason for choosing ETH? Analysis of the 6 major reasons for Ethereum's stagflation: unexpected impact of upgrades, ETF failures, and failure to keep up with the boom: Is Solana really beyond the Ethereum EVM chain? Public chain competition pattern from the quality of liquidity pools "New thinking on public chain valuation: L1 premium is in doubt, ETH sovereign status is questioned..." This article was first published in BlockTempo "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Block Chain News Media".