Global frenzy over the US election betting market! He bet on Trump's election at Polymarket and made a whopping 16 million.

During the entire election period this year, the most prominent application in the crypto world, apart from Pump.Fun, should be the prediction market Polymarket. Due to Polymarket's excellent operations during the election period, coupled with endorsements from Trump and some key opinion leaders, the positioning of "betting on who will be the next president on Polymarket" spread rapidly. The volume related to the president continued to rise as the election night approached, until noon on November 6th, when too many people flooded into the Polymarket website, causing its server to briefly crash.

Throughout the election cycle, the odds on Polymarket have been highly sensitive to news flow, as opposed to traditional polling institutions. Money always precedes news, and Trump's chances of winning on Polymarket were already rising before the swing states had decided the outcome.

The total volume of prediction trading on the Polymarket for the election has reached $3,612,184,597. The volume of trades related to the Republican candidate Trump on Polymarket is close to $1.48 billion, and the volume of trades related to the Democratic candidate Harris is $1.01 billion.

Image source: @rchen8

Leading traditional opinion polls, going viral

On November 6th, Polymarket's data showed a significant Fluctuation in Trump's chances of winning. At 1 am, Trump's chances of winning were 59.4%, rising to 63% earlier. By 9:46 am, Trump's chances of winning rose to 71.1%, while Harris's chances of winning fell to 29.1%. As of 11:17 am, Trump's chances of winning further rose to 88.6%. Subsequently, Trump continued to lead in the crucial swing states, and the odds on Polymarket fluctuated rapidly, with everyone speaking with their money.

Image source: Polymarket

According to Protos data, Polymarket and Kalshi have compared their election odds with The New York Times (NYT) and Nate Silver, and the differences between them are obvious. For example, on October 31, the odds of Trump winning the US election on Polymarket were 66%, but on The Hill, it was only 48%.

In a broader sample, the average of traditional polling institutions such as Nate Silver, NYT, or FiveThirtyEight shows that the odds of Trump and Harris are only within a few basis points in the past period. Obviously, the results from Polymarket based on trading activity are more convincing compared to traditional polling institutions.

Image source: Protos

According to data from the application analysis platform SensorTower on November 6th, Kalshi, a regulated prediction market platform, is currently ranked first in the Apple Finance application category and also ranks first in the free application category. At the same time, Polymarket has also risen to second place in the free application ranking, which is the highest ranking for these two applications so far.

Image source: Apple store

Who gained, who lost

encryption prediction market has always been seen as a product with strong periodicity and only specific application scenarios, such as political elections and sports events. With the end of the US election cycle approaching, the next development of Polymarket will be the focus of many people's attention, but for now, the most eye-catching is the $3.6 billion worth of the election trade. Under the heavy betting, French trader Théo wagered $45 million on Trump, and ultimately became the most profitable user on Polymarket.

In August, Théo sent dozens of emails to a Wall Street Journal reporter, criticizing what he saw as biased mainstream media polls favoring Hillary. During a Zoom call, he claimed that the Democratic Party-backed media was paving the way for social unrest by promoting intense competition in the election, while he expected an overwhelming victory for Trump. Théo expressed surprise at the attention his trades received from the outside world. He started placing low-profile bets in August, purchasing millions of dollars of Trump winning contracts under the username Fredi9999. At the time, the odds for Trump and Hillary on Polymarket were roughly equal.

In order to avoid drastic price fluctuations, Théo spreads his bets over multiple days. However, as the bet amount increases, Théo notices that other traders avoid quoting when buying from Fredi9999, making it difficult for him to place bets at the desired price. As a result, he created three additional accounts in September and October to conceal his buying behavior.

If Trump wins and achieves the landslide victory he expects, Théo could make a profit of over 80 million US dollars, with a doubling return rate. His main bet is on Trump winning the electoral votes, and he has also placed additional bets of millions of dollars on Trump winning the popular vote - a scenario that many observers consider unlikely. In addition, he has placed bets on Trump winning in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Related reading: Smashing tens of millions of euros! The mysterious high roller bets on Trump's election, and Polymarket's investigation reveals the truth

Today, the election results are finally revealed, and Theo's account Fredi9999 has made a total profit of $16.47 million.

Image source: Polymarket

Using the four betting options with the largest volume on the topic of 'Who will win the presidential election' on Polymarket as an example, BlockBeats has listed the users with the highest profits and losses.

Trump

The chart below shows the distribution of market share for users' bets on whether Trump will be elected president on Polymarket. The 'Supporters' on the left represent users who believe that Trump will be elected, with the largest holder 'zxgngl' holding 29,473,073 shares, currently earning a total profit of $11.315 million. Other major supporters include 'Fredi9999' and 'walletmobile', mentioned earlier.

On the right, the 'opponent' is a user who believes that Trump will not be elected. The largest holder, 'I95153360', holds 7,107,980 shares and currently has a loss of $1.192 million.

Image source: Polymarket

He Jinli

The chart below shows the distribution of market share of users on Polymarket betting on whether Keiko Fujimori will be elected president. On the left, 'supporters' represent users who believe that Keiko Fujimori will be elected, with the largest holder 'leier' holding 10,871,056 shares. Currently, this user's total loss amount has reached 4.99 million US dollars. Other major supporters include 'StarVoting' and 'Ly67890'.

On the right-hand side, the 'opponent' believes that the user who won't be elected is the biggest holder, 'COMMA-luh', who holds 4,878,533 shares. In addition, the user is also betting on the 'Trump will be elected president' transaction, with total profits exceeding $210,000.

Image source: Polymarket

Disclaimer: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific situation. Investing based on this is at your own risk.

This article is authorized to be reposted from: "Rhythm Blockbeats"

Original author: shushu