Call and ask about Kung Fu! Is it hopeless for BTC to reach 100,000 this year? ChatGPT tells you that "this time" is the only possibility.

BTC October trend

BTC ($BTC) officially entered November, although it once broke through the $71,000 mark, it pulled back after failing to break through the new historical high, and once fell to around $67,000 with a Long Wick Candle. At the time of writing, it is at $69,197, with a daily increase of 1.68%.

Since the beginning of this year, investors generally believe that with the upcoming November 5, 2024 (Tuesday) US presidential election, Bitcoin is expected to break through its historical high before the end of the year. However, many experts have recently revised their predictions, suggesting that the situation may be "less optimistic" and indicating that the time for Bitcoin to break through $100,000 may be significantly delayed.

Due to the divergent opinions of traders and analysts in the market, we have decided to seek help directly from artificial intelligence (AI). This time, we have consulted ChatGPT-4o, and the questions are as follows:

"You are an expert in the BTC and encryption asset field. The breakthrough of BTC will be influenced by multiple factors, including the Halving effect in 2024, institutional investment injection, and global economic inflation pressure. Please consider factors such as Technical Analysis, macro environment, project development, and community support to evaluate when BTC ($BTC) is most likely to break through $100,000 and provide an explanation for your prediction."

The key driver of Bitcoin's appreciation

First of all, historical data shows that Bitcoin (BTC) experiences a strong uptrend approximately 6 to 18 months after each Halving. This is mainly due to the supply decrease caused by Halving, creating a 'supply shock' that boosts demand and further drives up prices.

The last Halving of BTC occurred on April 19, 2024. For this, ChatGPT-4o believes that the Halving effect of BTC in this round may not start to show until the middle of 2025, which is about 15-18 months later.

In the view of ChatGPT-4o, there are several factors in 2025 that could drive BTC to break through $100,000.

Institutional Bringing in Influx of Funds: The mainstream institutions' interest in BTC continues to rise. If large investment institutions continue to increase their holdings of BTC from 2024 to 2025, the influx of funds will create a strong support effect.

Macroeconomics and Inflation Risks: The current unstable macroeconomy has caused many investors to turn to safe-haven assets, and Bitcoin's role as 'digital gold' is increasingly being followed.

The market sentiment of retail investors and the fear of missing out (FOMO) effect: whenever Bitcoin (BTC) starts a big pump, the fear of missing out emotion of retail investors will be triggered, further driving up the price.

Election Effect: The US presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 5th. Republican candidate Trump has advocated for BTC to become a strategic reserve asset for the United States, which could have a profound impact on the supply and demand of BTC. In addition, Trump's open attitude towards cryptocurrency may also promote policy improvements and boost the encryption industry.

What's the next step for Bitcoin?

The biggest news event recently is undoubtedly this week's US presidential election. According to historical data, BTC has experienced price pullbacks in the days leading up to the election in both 2016 and 2020.

For example, in 2016, Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 10.2% in the days leading up to the election; and in 2020, although the decline was smaller, it still reached 6.1%.

In the week before the 2024 election day, despite BTC briefly surpassing $72,000, it subsequently experienced a pullback of nearly 6.3%.

However, most experts still have a positive outlook on the rebound potential of BTC after the election. From a technical analysis perspective, BTC is currently testing the 'neckline' of a large reverse head and shoulders pattern. Analysts point out that the market will be observing the performance of BTC at the support level of $68,500 in the coming weeks. If BTC can find support at this level, it may subsequently challenge $70,500 and continue to surge upwards.

However, analysts also warned that if it fails to hold above $70,000 or breaks below the support at $68,500, BTC may re-enter consolidation and test the short-term support around $67,500.