Weekly Report: BTC long and short battle, high dividend yield, U.S. stocks collapse, CZ's shining speech in Dubai..

BTC reached a high of $73,620 this week, approaching a new high, and then fell back to the $70,000 level. It is worth observing when the market sentiment will change. The following is a summary of important events this week, on-chain data updates, and events to watch next week. (Previous summary: BTC broke through the $70,000 mark, has the pullback ended? US stocks collapsed, Meta and Microsoft's financial reports failed to impress investors) (Background supplement: BTC broke through $66,000 and rebounded strongly, US government Wallet was hacked, SEC approved BTCETF options) This week (10/27-11/02) Important events overview BTC dynamics: With the poor performance of Meta and Microsoft's financial reports, the four major US stock indexes fell simultaneously, and BTC once fell below $70,000. Surge in US bond yields: Trump's election fears reigniting inflation, the 10-year US bond yield has risen to 4.28%. Decline in US stock return expectations: RIA Advisors' analysis shows that the average annual return on US stocks in the next ten years is only 3%, increasing the risk of market recession. Yen trend: The defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party in the Japanese House of Representatives elections led to the yen hitting a 3-month low. The market predicts that the Bank of Japan will delay rate hikes to support the economy, increasing the risk of yen depreciation. Gold hits a historic high: The price of gold is close to the $2,800 high, becoming a hedge tool in the market. Whether BTC will follow the rise becomes the focus of the market. Binance founder CZ's speech in Dubai: CZ made his first public speech after being imprisoned, revealing the future focus. Arthur Hayes published a lengthy article: He believes that China's economic stimulus policies will ultimately lead to a hot money inflow into the BTC market. Vitalik Buterin counterattacks criticism: Vitalik Buterin strongly responded to the criticism of the Ethereum Foundation, defending the Foundation's sale of ETH. Changes in trading market data this week Emotions and zone 1. Fear and Greed Index This week's market sentiment index rose from 74 (greed) to 75 (greed), staying in the (greed) range all week. 2. Funding rate heatmap This week, the highest BTC funding rate reached 16.79%, and the lowest was 8.08%, showing a continued strong bullish sentiment. The funding rate heatmap shows the changing trend of funding rates for different cryptocurrencies, with colors ranging from green for zero rates to yellow for 50% positive rates, and black representing negative rates; the white candlestick chart shows the BTC price fluctuation, contrasting with the funding rate. 3. Zone performance According to Artemis data, the average increase in zone in the blockchain field this week was 1.6%, with Memecoin, RWA, and Decentralized Finance taking the top three spots at 10.9%, 6.3%, and 5.5% respectively. This week, BTC and Ether rose by 5.1% and 3.9% respectively. The three worst-performing areas are: Data Availability (-7.2%), Gaming (-4.0%), and Utilities and Services (-3.3%). Market Liquidity 1. Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap and Stablecoin Supply This week, the total Cryptocurrency market cap rose from $2.36 trillion to $2.4 trillion, an increase of $400 billion, with a total market cap increase of approximately 1.7%. The total supply of stablecoins, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, increased from $162.85 billion to $163.41 billion, an increase of $560 million, with a growth rate of approximately 0.34%. 2. Potential buying power within exchanges Data shows that the overall assets within exchanges were net outflows this week. BTC technical indicators 1. Large inflow of funds into BTC Spot ETF This week, BTC ETF funds flowed in by $26.284 billion. 2. BTC Rainbow Chart The BTC rainbow chart shows that the current price of BTC ($70,000) is in the range of "consider buying" to "consider Auto-Invest". It is between the "consider Auto-Invest" stage ($70,000) and the "special price dumping" stage ($52,000). 3. BTC net profit and loss performance The realized net profit and loss indicator for BTC shows that the current market situation has warmed up, with the profit and loss ratio roughly similar to January of this year. 4. Long-term BTC holder reduction According to on-chain data, since mid-October, the net position data has gradually turned negative, and has continued to decline in the following days, indicating that long-term holders have started to significantly reduce their positions. Although the dumping intensity has not further intensified, the reduction in net positions of long-term holders above $70,000 poses a short-term challenge to market support. If this trend continues, the market may face certain downward pressure. 5. Strong buying power for BTC on-chain According to on-chain data, the changes in the long and short-term holder structure of BTC this week show an increase in market risk preference. With short-term funds pouring in to support price increases, market liquidity has improved. However, the behavior of long-term holders reducing their positions may add pressure to the market in the future, and the sustainability of this trend in the coming weeks needs to be observed. 6. BTC open interest in contracts hits a new high According to the data, the open interest of BTC contracts within exchanges has shown a stable rising trend this week, rising from $37.27 billion to $43.8 billion, and ultimately falling to $41.4 billion, still above the key level of $39 billion at the end of March this year. The overall rise in open interest reflects active Margin Trading activities, indicating a significant increase in investor risk appetite. Ethereum important technical indicators 1. Inflow of funds into Ethereum Spot ETF This week, the net inflow of funds into Ethereum ETF was approximately $4.7 million. 2. BTC correlation This week's data shows that the correlation of BTC with ETH and SOL is 0.9 and 0.3 respectively. Compared to last week, the correlation of BTC with SOL has changed from negative (-0.15) to positive correlation (0.30), indicating a possible sign of warming up in the market trend for SOL. The correlation between major tokens has generally strengthened, indicating a higher consensus on the overall trend in the market, especially the strong correlation between BTC, ETH, and DOGE. 3. Total value locked (TVL) in the Decentralized Finance market This week's data shows that the total value locked in the Decentralized Finance market decreased from $87.85 billion to $87.93 billion last week. Market analysis news this week 1. BTC broke through the $70,000 mark, has the pullback ended? US stocks collapsed, Meta and Microsoft's financial reports failed to impress investors The poor performance of Meta and Microsoft's financial reports disappointed investors, causing all four major US stock indexes to fall, and BTC also fell below $70,000. (Continue reading) 2. Taiwan's labor insurance bankruptcy warning sounds, can embracing BTC achieve a turnaround? According to the latest statistics from the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, as of the end of June this year, both the central and local governments have reached new highs in hidden debts, highlighting the heavy burden on the next generation, and bringing the topic of labor insurance bankruptcy back to the surface... If the government embraces BTC, can it achieve a turnaround? (Continue reading) 3. The end of the era of high returns in US stocks? Analysts warn: future annual returns may only be 3% Lance Roberts, Chief Investment Strategist at RIA Advisors, stated on the 25th that the US stock market may face the risk of recession in the next ten years, and used multiple indicators for comprehensive analysis to find evidence of an impending decline through chart data. (Continue reading) 4. Arthur Hayes's lengthy article: China's "epic point shaving" will eventually lead hot money to flow into BTC Arthur Haye...