Non-farm payrolls unexpectedly plummeted, causing BTC to crash! Over 12,000 people created the worst performance in nearly 4 years, and the culprits are these two?

Non-farm payroll data fell far short of expectations, and the price of BTC plummeted.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics surprised the market with the October nonfarm payroll data released on November 1, showing an unexpected increase of only 12,000, far below the market's expectation of 100,000, and also marking the smallest increase since December 2020. At the same time, the nonfarm payroll data for the previous two months was significantly revised downward, with a total decrease of 112,000. However, the unemployment rate was not affected, remaining at the predicted 4.1%.

The main data is summarized as follows:

The predicted value of the name disclosure is 12,000, 106,000, 223,000 for the previous US non-farm employment numbers, and the unemployment rate is 4.1%, 4.1%, 4.1%.

Source: Investing.com The October non-farm payroll data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics was unexpectedly weak, with only 12,000 new jobs added.

This news has sparked concerns in the market about the slowdown of the US economy, leading to a sharp decline in the price of BTC, once again falling below $70,000, ending a week-long upward trend. As of the time of completion, the price of BTC is $69,783.

Image source: TradingView BTC price experienced a brief rebound, and then plummeted sharply due to the unexpected non-farm payroll data

The main reasons for the decline in the job market are hurricanes and strikes.

The downturn in employment data this time is mainly attributed to two factors: hurricanes and large-scale strikes. At the end of September and the beginning of October, hurricanes Helene and Milton hit the southeastern United States, causing thousands of people to lose their jobs, severely affecting local economic activities. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that hurricanes could reduce employment by as many as 40,000 people.

In addition, Boeing's large-scale strike has had a significant impact on employment data. Boeing's factories in California, Oregon, and Washington state have a total of 33,000 workers on strike, resulting in a reduction of 46,000 positions in the manufacturing industry, the largest decline since April 2020. These temporary factors are considered the main reasons for the decline in the job market.

The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and investors' reactions are mixed.

Despite the poor employment data, the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, in line with market expectations. Average hourly wages increased by 0.4% per month, slightly higher than the expected 0.3%, indicating that wage pressure still exists. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 1 percentage point (0.25 percentage points) at the meeting on November 6th to 7th. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in November has risen to 98.9%. Even the probability of another rate cut in December has also increased to 82.7%.

Source: CME FedWatch market predicts the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November surged to 98.9%.

Goldman Sachs and other institutions believe that the Fed may attribute the soft data to one-off factors and continue to push for loose monetary policy. Investors have mixed reactions to this, with US stocks rising on the back of impressive earnings reports from tech giants like Amazon, while risk assets such as BTC are declining.

The performance of the major U.S. stock indices is as follows:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: rose 288.73 points or 0.69% to close at 42,052.19 points.

Nasdaq Index: pump 144.77 points, or 0.8%, closed at 18,239.92 points.

S&P 500 Index: pump 23.35 points, or 0.41%, closed at 5,728.8 points.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: rose 54.68 points, or 1.11%, to close at 5,001.43 points.

NYSE FANG+ Index: rose 122.24 points, or 1.05%, to close at 11,739.28.

Future Outlook: Economic Uncertainty and Investment Strategies

Experts pointed out that the impact of hurricanes and strikes on employment data belongs to temporary factors, and the economic fundamentals have not shown significant deterioration. However, the slowdown in the job market may indicate increased pressure on US economic growth. Investors need to follow the upcoming US presidential election and Federal Reserve policy meetings, which may have a significant impact on market trends. In the face of increasing economic uncertainty, investors should carefully adjust their investment portfolios, follow the balance of asset allocation, and respond to potential market fluctuations and risks.

[Disclaimer] The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Users should consider whether any opinions, perspectives, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific situation. Investment based on this is at your own risk.