The market is worried that the United States will not be able to reach a debt ceiling agreement in time, and panic is pervasive.

Written by: Jonas

A. Market View

1. Macro liquidity

Currency liquidity has tightened. The market is worried that the United States will not be able to reach a debt ceiling agreement in time, and the ensuing liquidity withdrawal of 1.2 trillion US dollars. The U.S. dollar index rebounded on a weekly basis, forming a continuous impact on risk asset prices. Panic has spread to almost all markets, U.S. stocks have begun to fall, and encrypted assets are weaker than U.S. stocks.

Second, the whole market situation

The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:

Markets have tumbled this week. At present, the exchange rate of ETH/BTC is gradually increasing, and more funds are beginning to be transferred to ETH. The altcoins have no trend and follow BTC as a whole, mainly relying on oversold rebounds. Market hotspots mainly revolve around the concept of Hong Kong.

1. CFX: public chain CFX is the only officially recognized public chain in China. The Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission conducted a virtual currency hearing and allowed retail investors to enter the market on June 1.
2. WPLS: Pulsechain, a fork chain of ETH, has entered the top ten public chain TVL, and most of the projects on the chain are copycats of various defi. The founder is the founder of MLM HEX.
3. FTM: The main cross-chain bridge MULTI of the public chain FTM has an accident. MULTI is the earliest FTM cross-chain bridge, and 80% of the TVL above it comes from the FTM chain.
4. LBR: Lybra Finance with liquidity pledge can pledge ETH to Lido, and then print the stable currency eusd, and eusd can have a 7% annualized return (from the pledged ETH).

3. BTC Market

1) Data on the chain

The ETH lockup pledge rate has increased. Judging from the data of ETH’s POS mining pool, the current total lock-up volume has reached 15.5% of the total circulation, while a large number of verifiers are still waiting in line to enter. The waiting time for activation has exceeded 37 days, and the exit time is about 5 days . However, it should be noted that with the increase in the amount of ETH pledged in POS, the income has declined step by step.

The outflow trend of funds in the market is maintained. The market value of the four main stablecoins continues to decrease, which represents pessimistic expectations for the market outlook.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the index is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the index is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. MVRV fell below the key level 1, and holders are generally in the red. The current indicator is 0.45, entering the recovery phase.

2) Futures Quotes

Futures funding rate: The rate is neutral this week, and the market sentiment is stable. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, is the short-term bottom of the market.

Futures open interest: The total open interest decreased this week, and the main funds were bearish and retreated.

Futures long-short ratio: 2.3. Retail investors entered the market with a strong rebound sentiment. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a negative indicator, below 0.7 is more panic, and above 2.0 is more greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.

3) Spot Market

Markets have tumbled this week. The support of BTC is weakening, and it may be difficult to maintain, or step back on the weekly line. The volatility of BTC has decreased to the level in July 2020 and January 2023, and it may usher in greater volatility.

B. Market Data

1. The total lock-up amount of the public chain

2. TVL ratio of each public chain

This week, the total TVL fell slightly by 0.5b, or 1%. The proportion of the ETH chain has declined slightly in recent weeks, and this week continued to drop by 0.5% to 57.17%

Judging from the data of the past seven days, in the core public chain of the second-tier Ethereum network, Arbitrum fell by 5.51% after rising for two consecutive weeks, and other popular L2s also stopped their upward trend and began to fall. Among them, Optimism fell by 1 %, Polygon fell 0.01%, and Avalanche continued to fall 6.78%.

3. The lock-up amount of each chain protocol

1) ETH lock-up amount

2) BSC lock-up amount

3) Tron Lockup Amount

4) Avalanche Lockup Amount

5) Polygon lock-up amount

6) Arbitrum Lockup Amount

7) Optimism Lockup Amount

4. History of ETH Gas fee

The current on-chain transfer fee is about 1.12 US dollars, returning to the gas level two weeks ago, and continued to drop by 20.5% compared to the same time last week. The market lacked hot spots in recent weeks, and gas returned to the bottom range. The Uniswap transaction fee is about $10.21, and the Opensea transaction fee is about $3.97. From the perspective of gas consumption, Uniswap occupies the top position.

5. Changes in NFT market data

1) NFT-500 Index

2) NFT Market Conditions

3) NFT trading market share

4) NFT Buyer Analysis

Judging from the total volume of the market, this week is still in a downward trend. According to the NFT market share, blur occupies about 72.1%, which is an increase of 10.4% compared to last week. Opensea accounted for approximately 18.2%, down ~4.9% from last week.

From the analysis of the situation of NFT buyers, the number of buyers has fluctuated in the bottom range recently, and the number of buyers this week rebounded slightly compared with the previous two weeks, especially the number of returning buyers.

From an overview of the NFT market, blue-chip NFT floor prices generally fell this week, with Azuki down 1.67%, MAYC down 5.82%, and BAYC down 4.17%. Among them, Milady fell sharply by 34%.

6. The latest financing situation of the project