$8.05 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today – The market faces strong volatility

Today, approximately 8.05 billion USD worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire, forcing investors in the crypto market to prepare for the possibility of strong volatility.

Traders and investors need to pay special attention to this options expiration due to the large volume and high notional value, which can have a significant impact on the short-term trend of the market. In this context, indicators such as the put-call ratio and maximum pain point provide insights into potential developments and market direction that may occur.

Details of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today

The notional value of Bitcoin options expiring today reaches 7.24 billion USD. According to data from Deribit, a total of 77,642 Bitcoin options will expire, with a put-call ratio of 0.73 — reflecting a clear preference for the call option ( compared to the put option ).

Data also shows that the maximum pain point for BTC options is 86,000 USD. In crypto options trading, this price level is often the point at which option holders face the largest financial loss.

Bitcoin options are about to expire | Source: DeribitIn addition, 458,926 Ethereum options will also expire today. These options have a notional value of 808.3 million USD, a put-call ratio of 0.74, and a maximum pain point of 1,900 USD.

Compared to last week, only 177,130 ETH contracts expired with a nominal value of 279.789 million USD, the number of Ethereum options expiring today has increased significantly.

Ethereum options are about to expire | Source: DeribitAt the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at 93,597 USD — significantly higher than the maximum pain point of 86,000 USD. Meanwhile, Ethereum is trading below the maximum pain point with a price of only 1,774 USD.

In the context of maximum pain point ( also known as the strike price ) typically acts as a price magnet due to positioning actions by professional investors, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have the potential to adjust to their respective price levels.

The positions of both BTC and ETH are concentrated around the price levels near the maximum pain points. Specifically, the frequency charts show significant accumulation in the range of 80,000–90,000 USD for Bitcoin and 1,800–2,000 USD for Ethereum – reflecting strong trading activity around these areas.

This indicates that the market is likely to experience adjustments or fluctuations in the short term.

Polymarket: Only 16% chance of BTC reaching 100,000 USD in April

Deribit reported that traders are currently selling cash-secured put options on Bitcoin. They are leveraging stablecoins to collect premiums while positioning to buy BTC at lower prices — reflecting confidence in the long-term bullish trend.

"BTC traders on Deribit are expressing long-term bullish expectations by selling cash-collateralized put options, leveraging stablecoins to buy the dip and take profits," Deribit stated.

According to Deribit, the open interest level ( for open contracts ) is currently concentrated around the strike price of 100,000 USD, reflecting strong market expectations for BTC to reach this milestone.

However, data from the prediction platform Polymarket shows that investors only assess the probability of BTC reaching 100,000 USD in April at 20%.

Bitcoin price prediction for April | Source: Polymarket## Market signals from ETF options and macro factors

Another noteworthy point is that the total accumulated Delta (CD) of BTC options and related ETFs on Deribit has now reached 9 billion USD. This indicates that the market is highly sensitive to BTC price fluctuations, while also posing a significant risk of volatility if market makers engage in risk hedging.

This view aligns with the assessment of analyst Kyle Chassé, who believes that hedge funds typically do not bet on the long-term bullish trend of BTC. Instead, they exploit risk-free profit opportunities through arbitrage strategies. When trades conclude, liquidity is withdrawn, increasing selling pressure.

However, analysts from Deribit also noted a significant increase in BTC call option contracts expiring from April to June 2025. Investors are targeting strike prices ranging from 90,000 to 110,000 USD, driven by the fact that the price of Bitcoin has surpassed 89,000 USD.

This indicates that FOMO sentiment is contributing to the bullish expectations as BTC surpasses the 90,000 USD threshold. Analysts also note that the reversal of the Trump administration's tariff policy on April 9 has reduced global market volatility, which may encourage the flow of capital from gold to cryptocurrency, thereby supporting the price uptrend of Bitcoin.

However, not all of the capital driving the recovery of BTC is new money. According to analysis by Tony Stewart from Deribit, half of it comes from the expansion of existing positions — indicating that traders are making strategic adjustments rather than entering new positions.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

Annie