Who is still crazily buying Bitcoin?

When publicly traded companies start to become Coin Hoarding parties.

Written by: Pzai, Foresight News

On April 24, Fidelity stated on X, "Due to purchases by publicly traded companies, the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is declining. This situation is expected to accelerate in the near future." Since the U.S. elections, the loose expectations brought by Trump to the crypto space have undoubtedly enhanced the market's potential expectations, with publicly traded companies having purchased nearly 350,000 Bitcoins. The market game among exchanges, on-chain whales, and publicly traded companies is also in full swing. Under the market turmoil, where will Bitcoin head in the future? This article will analyze Bitcoin's data indicators and provide an overview of market dynamics.

The current amount of Bitcoin on exchanges is 2.6 million, the lowest level since November 2018. Since November 2024, over 425,000 Bitcoins have been transferred from exchanges. An important point in this indicator is the second half of 2024, especially after Trump's victory, which saw a significant outflow at that time, coinciding with large purchases by U.S. listed companies. This trend is still showing a downward trend today, reflecting that various related entities (such as listed companies) are increasing their Bitcoin reserves.

Bitcoin Exchange Supply Trend (Source: CryptoQuant)

Since the U.S. presidential election, publicly traded companies have increased their holdings by nearly 350,000 bitcoins. Looking at the growth curve of the bitcoin holdings of the major holder Strategy, since November 10, 2024, they have significantly increased their holdings by 107,000 coins within two weeks, and continued to increase their holdings to over 531,000 coins, averaging an increase of 42,000 coins per month. Among the distribution of holdings in publicly traded companies, 8 companies hold more than 10,000 bitcoins, and each company's holdings have maintained a growth trend in the past six months.

The mNAV of these publicly listed companies for Bitcoin (the ratio of market value to holdings value) mostly falls between 1.4 and 2.25. If benchmarked at a 1:1 ratio, it is expected to release $50 billion in liquidity to the Bitcoin market. Outside of the United States, Asian listed companies such as Japan's Metaplanet and Hong Kong's HK Asia Holdings are also increasing their allocations. Metaplanet's CEO Simon Gerovich has even stated plans to double their Bitcoin holdings from 5,000 this year.

Before January 2025, the spot Bitcoin ETF data also corresponds with the outflow from exchanges, with a maximum single-day inflow reaching 18,000 Bitcoins, which to some extent promoted the surge in Bitcoin. Before the election, the average position cost of Strategy was $42,000, and it subsequently continued to increase to $67,000, proving that the long-term value of Bitcoin is recognized by the market.

Additionally, U.S. policymakers are also accelerating the compliance reserve process. According to Bitcoin Laws data, among the 27 states that have submitted Bitcoin reserve bills, three have entered the second submission phase (Arizona, New Hampshire, Texas), with Arizona already in the second review stage. On March 7, White House AI and cryptocurrency advisor David Sacks stated that President Trump has signed an executive order regarding Bitcoin strategic reserves, but only reserves from Bitcoin that have been confiscated through criminal or civil processes.

According to on-chain data statistics, the U.S. government holds more than 183,000 bitcoins, accounting for 0.92% of the existing circulating supply of bitcoins, with a current market value exceeding $16.4 billion. As state bills gradually take effect, this number is expected to grow further, which will also lower the threshold for U.S. enterprises in bitcoin reserves.

For the industry, the entry of traditional funds into the market provides a stabilizing effect, and since the majority of listed companies' investments in Bitcoin are above the cost line (for example, Strategy 1.4 times, Tesla 2.78 times), the outlook for Bitcoin investment is also relatively optimistic. As the compliance direction in the crypto space and the "Trump Reserve" have settled, ETF inflows have also increased again, which is expected to continue strengthening the buying trend of listed companies.