Bitcoin approaches the important threshold of 92,000 dollars – What is the next trend?

Bitcoin is at a major turning point. Fluctuating around the $93,000 mark, BTC is currently caught between two opposing waves: bullish momentum and bearish resistance. With the total value of leveraged positions exceeding $10 billion, the market is as tense as a guitar string — just waiting for a push to explode in either direction.

Will the breakout come soon or is this a sign of a deep correction? And if that happens, how strong will it be?

Volatility of short-term holders

According to historical trends, whenever Bitcoin trades far beyond the fair value of the short-term investor group (red line), the market often falls into a "overheated" state – illustrated by the red arrows. These are early warning signals for strong corrections.

Conversely, the green arrows indicate the times when the price of Bitcoin recovers or maintains above this threshold – often a sign of the beginning of a new bullish trend. These touchpoints are not only support levels but also important "turning points" on BTC's upward journey.

Source: AlphractalCurrently, BTC is hovering right above the fair value threshold for short-term investors, indicating an important decision zone.

Meanwhile, the STH-MVRV index is approaching the neutral mark of 1 from below — an area often associated with the accumulation phase before the market enters strong volatility or breakout.

Momentum and Leverage Focus

In-depth analysis of on-chain data of Bitcoin shows that the market is preparing to be impacted.

Source: AlphractalBoth indicators including reasonable market cap momentum and long-term reasonable market cap momentum are oscillating near important support areas.

Source: AlphractalAccording to historical data, when these indicators are at similarly low levels, the market often experiences strong growth phases after a period of gloomy accumulation, indicating that a major volatility event is likely to occur soon.

Source: AlphractalFinally, OI (open interest) is telling a different story: the total value of leveraged positions continues to remain high, recently surpassing the threshold of 70 billion dollars. Such periods of leveraged accumulation are often a precursor to explosive moves, as both Long and Short positions are liquidated together.

Possible Scenarios

Bitcoin is currently stuck in a tense battle zone, with the bulls trying to reclaim higher ground to reverse the situation and market dominance.

A decisive breakout above the $92,500 mark could ignite a new buying wave and trigger mass Short liquidations, potentially driving a rapid bullish surge.

However, the bears are fiercely defending this level. If they cannot defend it, the risk of a strong bearish reversal is very high, especially when overly leveraged Long positions are wiped out.

With OI still at a high level, pressure is increasing, and any breakout could trigger a chain reaction in both directions.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do their own research before making any decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

Minh Anh