Bitcoin "depeg" from US stocks: the rise of digital gold or a new signal from the market?

The latest data shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has dropped from 0.88 at the end of 2024 to the current 0.77, while the correlation with the Nasdaq Composite index has also decreased from 0.91 in January 2025 to 0.83. Is Bitcoin shedding its label as a "high-risk asset" and gradually establishing itself as "digital gold"? Or is it merely a temporary fluctuation in the market cycle?

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Decoupling Trend: From Synchronization to Differentiation

Over the past few years, Bitcoin has shown a high correlation with U.S. stocks, especially the tech-driven Nasdaq, especially during the 2021-2022 bull and bear cycles. With the influx of institutional investors, the launch of crypto ETFs, and changes in the macroeconomic environment, Bitcoin was once considered a "risky asset", rising and falling along with U.S. stocks. However, since the spring of 2025, this synchronicity has weakened significantly. According to a report by Jiemian News on April 15, Bitcoin's 30-day rolling correlation with the Nasdaq has fallen to a five-year low of 0.46 in March 2024, and although it has recovered slightly recently, it is still far below its historical high.

On April 21, the Financial Associated Press further pointed out that Bitcoin rose against the trend during the U.S. stock market correction, demonstrating its independence from the traditional market. Market observer @cryptomayflower on platform X also posted on April 23 that the continued decoupling of Bitcoin from U.S. stocks could be a turning point for it as an "independent asset class," especially against the backdrop of a falling dollar index and pressure on the U.S. stock market, where the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is increasing. This trend echoes ARK Invest's report "Big Ideas 2025" released in February 2025, which emphasized that Bitcoin's volatility in 2024 would drop to a historical low (annualized volatility below 50%), making its risk characteristics more akin to a safe-haven asset rather than a speculative asset.

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Driving Factors: Macroeconomic Environment and Policy Expectations

Behind the decoupling of Bitcoin, macroeconomic and policy changes play a crucial role. Firstly, the intensification of global economic uncertainty has driven demand for safe-haven assets. In April 2025, Tencent News cited analysis from Bitcoin Magazine Pro stating that the tariff war, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and weak corporate earnings have led to increased fluctuations in the stock market, while Bitcoin, due to its decentralized nature, has attracted capital seeking safe havens. User @biteshizhe also pointed out in a post on April 23 that concerns over an economic recession combined with risks in U.S. Treasuries may push Bitcoin to become "digital gold 2.0."

Secondly, the optimistic expectations at the policy level are also supporting Bitcoin's independent market performance. According to a report by Investment Insights on April 10, multiple states in the U.S. are responding to the initiative to "build a Bitcoin strategic reserve," coupled with the SEC's potential signals of easing cryptocurrency regulations, which have boosted market confidence. After the Trump administration came to power, the promised policies of "easing cryptocurrency regulations" and "establishing a Bitcoin reserve" during the campaign have gradually been implemented, further enhancing investors' long-term expectations for crypto assets.

Market Signals: Opportunities and Risks Coexist

Does Bitcoin's depeg mark its entry into a new asset cycle? Authoritative media outlets have mixed opinions on this. According to an analysis by Sina Finance on April 20, Bitcoin converges with U.S. stocks when risk appetite is high, but may turn into a safe-haven asset when the market panics, a dual attribute that makes its price volatility more difficult to predict. At the same time, the market is not without its worries. X user @Shuke_Beta warned on April 22 that although the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has increased, its safe-haven effect still needs more data to verify, and the contraction of liquidity may put pressure on prices. The Financial Associated Press also warned that although the volatility of bitcoin has decreased in an institutional-dominated market environment, it may still be disrupted by global capital flows.

Investment Insight: Reevaluating the Role of Bitcoin

For investors, the decoupling trend of Bitcoin provides an opportunity to reassess their portfolios. Traditionally, Bitcoin has been viewed as a high-risk asset, highly correlated with tech stocks, but currently its positive correlation with gold has strengthened, potentially making it a hedging tool during times of inflation or increased economic uncertainty. However, investors should remain cautious; as noted by Investing.com on April 23, market sentiment and policy changes could still trigger short-term fluctuations.

This article only represents the author's personal views and does not reflect the position and views of this platform. This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.

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