🌹Will the bull return overnight? BTC surges to 94000, will retail investors chase the price or take profit? + 17 lectures on Chan Theory diagram tutorial👇

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Since January, the price of Bitcoin has been in a continuous downward trend, and the overall situation of the cryptocurrency market has been bleak. However, starting last night, BTC rebounded and rose, with a peak price exceeding 94,000 dollars, which may signal that Bitcoin is starting a new long-term bullish trend.
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The current price of BTC is reported at 93,700 USD, with a daily high of 94,050 USD. The entire crypto market is also in sync with the Bitcoin price, as many cryptocurrencies have recorded double-digit gains. For a moment, the sound of bulls returning echoes endlessly. What has caused the crypto market to suddenly rebound significantly? How will the market trend move in the future?
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🌹Is Trump going to drop the tariff stick? In the early hours, Trump stated that the tariffs on Chinese goods would not reach 145%, and the tariffs would decrease significantly but would not be zero. When asked if he would take a tough stance against China, he indicated that he would not. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Basent hinted at a loosening of tariff policies during a closed-door meeting at JPMorgan. White House Press Secretary Levitt stated at a press conference that Trump's relationship with China is moving in the right direction.
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Today the market welcomes a day of compromise: Trump seems to have loosened his stance on trade policy and the issue of Powell's position, leading to a rise in stock index futures; Musk also stated that he will gradually withdraw from the Government Efficiency Department and return to Tesla's main business. The market is like this; it will always force you to bow down and admit defeat.
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The US dollar continues to recover some of yesterday's losses. Meanwhile, the stock market is strengthening, and there is some small buying in bonds. The market is eager to hear good news. Today's good news is that Trump remains silent on trade issues. This may lead some market participants to believe that he is eager to reach a deal and that anything could reverse the market.
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🎉Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve in the financial markets. The tension between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is escalating. The main disagreements between the two focus on the inflationary pressures brought on by tariffs and the Fed's reluctance to cut interest rates, casting a shadow over the US dollar. The dollar index, which tracks the value of the dollar against a basket of currencies, has been falling since February, reaching its lowest point since 2022. Trump's public pressure on Powell, along with speculation that he may attempt to remove Powell or other Federal Reserve officials, has heightened concerns about the independence of the Fed—an independence that is a fundamental pillar of the US financial system.
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The potential consequences of the depreciation of the US dollar on the global economy are difficult to predict, but one thing is certain: Bitcoin will be a major beneficiary. It is a decentralized, censorship-resistant currency that is entirely managed by code, with a fixed supply schedule and no central authority manipulating its issuance. As confidence in traditional currency systems continues to wane, the narrative around Bitcoin becomes increasingly strong.
If concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve persist, Bitcoin may rise to historic highs. Due to its decentralized ledger, cryptocurrency serves as a hedge against the risks of the existing financial system. This was reflected in the risk of U.S. Treasuries after Trump hinted that he might dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell due to his desire for interest rate cuts. The premium on the yield of long-term Treasuries compared to short-term Treasuries has surged, benefiting Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has decisively broken through months of downtrend, and when a technical downtrend is broken, a technical uptrend will emerge.
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🎉Bitcoin's market share has risen to a nearly four-year high. Today, Bitcoin's market share (BTC.D) surged to 64.61%, the highest since February 2021. The high Bitcoin market share indicates the stagnation of the altcoin market, but it also suggests that a bottom rebound is imminent. According to historical data, when Bitcoin's market share surged above 60% last November, altcoins entered a small bull market. In both 2019 and 2021, Bitcoin's market share reached over 70%, followed by a grand bullish trend.
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What is the future trend of BTC? In the long term, the institutional demand for Bitcoin from exchange-traded funds (ETF) and traders seeking to hedge against macroeconomic risks could lead to Bitcoin's price doubling this year. Factors driving institutional demand (including corporate Bitcoin buyers and exchanges) may continue to support a positive price trend. However, the headwinds for Bitcoin's rise still exist, which may limit its further increase, driven by rekindled investor optimism and new hopes for easing US-China trade tensions. If market sentiment weakens, a market correction may occur.
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Due to the pressure on the economy from tariffs and policy uncertainties, the U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter will only grow by 0.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Currently, surveys of businesses and consumers indicate an economic slowdown, but official economic data has not yet shown this sign.
Economic indicators may begin to more clearly show a recession in the mid to late summer. The evolution of data in recent weeks is consistent with the previous ‘event-driven’ slowdown in growth. However, it is still too early to draw strong conclusions from the currently limited data.
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Regarding the dynamics of Sino-US trade, we have seen the Sino-US trade game shift from "high-profile confrontation" to "high-pressure negotiation + gradual easing." Currently, we are still in a period of extreme uncertainty, with the market in a state of fluctuation rather than trend—just volatility, responses, and waiting.
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🎉 Today's fear index is 72, and the market turned greedy overnight. Bitcoin rushed directly to 9.4, in fact, this time it was a bit unexpected, I didn't expect to touch it overnight. The short-term 9.4 position reduction, U.S. stocks opened higher, Japanese and South Korean stocks opened higher, Trump couldn't open Lao Bao, and the easing of tariff issues promoted the rise. In fact, the rise is not much, but the panic index is very strange, in the short term, put the profits in the pocket, and wait for the tariff problem to be solved and the interest rate cut signal is clear before it is too late
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