Bitcoin Cycle Big Speculation: Who is Leading the Rise and Fall? At what historical juncture are we standing?

Author: Bitcoin Magazine Pro

In 2025, Bitcoin did not experience the explosive start that many had expected. After the price broke through $100,000, there was a significant pullback, and investors and analysts began to question our position in the overall Bitcoin cycle.

This article will delve into a series of key on-chain data and macro indicators through market noise to assess whether Bitcoin's bull market is still intact or if it will face a deeper correction.

01

Health Pullback or Cycle End?

A good place to start is the MVRV-Z score, which is a long-used valuation metric that compares market value to realized value. After reaching a peak of around 3.36, the MVRV-Z score has dropped to about 1.43, coinciding with Bitcoin's decline from over $100,000 to a low of $75,000. At first glance, this 30% pullback seems serious.

Figure 1: The recent MVRV Z-score has rebounded from a low of 1.43 in 2025.

Historically, periods with MVRV-Z scores comparable to the current level often mark local bottoms rather than tops. Previous cycles, including 2017 and 2021, experienced similar pullbacks, followed by price recoveries. In short, although this decline has shaken investor confidence, it is consistent with historical pullbacks during bull markets.

02

Follow Smart Money

Another key metric is the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) multiple. This metric measures the velocity of Bitcoin and is weighted by the time coins are held. Peaks in the VDD multiple typically indicate that seasoned holders are taking profits, while low levels suggest accumulation.

Currently, the indicator is at a low point in the "green zone," similar to levels seen in the late stages of a bear market or early recovery phase. Given the sharp reversal from above $100,000, we may be witnessing the end of a profit-taking wave, with signs of long-term accumulation re-emerging, indicating expectations for higher prices.

Figure 2: The current VDD multiple indicates that long-term holders are in the accumulation phase.

The Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow Chart is one of the most insightful charts in on-chain data, enabling capital flows broken down by coin age. It distinguishes between different groups such as new market participants (held for less than 1 month) and medium-term holders (1-2 years) to observe capital migration. There was a surge in activity in the red band (new holders) as the Bitcoin price peaked at $106,000, suggesting that FOMO-driven buyers were flocking near the top. Since then, the group's activity has cooled significantly, returning to levels consistent with the early to mid-bull market.

On the contrary, the group of holders who have held for 1-2 years (typically macro-sensitive accumulators) is starting to rise again. This inverse correlation is key: long-term holders accumulate at market lows while newer participants capitulate or exit at those lows. These dynamics are similar to the accumulation-distribution patterns seen in earlier bull market cycles, particularly in 2020 and 2021.

Figure 3: The capital flow chart of Bitcoin shows that Bitcoin is flowing towards more experienced holders.

03

What stage are we in now?

From a macro perspective, we divide the Bitcoin market cycle into three key stages:

Bear Market Phase: Deep Correction (70-90%)

Recovery Phase: Reclaiming Previous High

Bull Market/Index Phase: Parabolic rise after breaking previous highs

The bear markets of 2015 and 2018 lasted for about 13-14 months. Our recent bear market cycle also lasted for 14 months. The recovery phases of past cycles lasted about 23-26 months, and our current cycle is within this time window.

Figure 4: Estimating Potential Bull Market Peaks Using Past Cycle Trends

However, this round of the bull market phase is somewhat unusual. After breaking through the historical high, the price did not immediately surge but instead experienced a pullback. This may indicate that we are forming a higher low before entering the steeper part of the exponential phase. If we take the average of the past cycle's exponential phases of 9 months and 11 months, the bull market is expected to peak around September 2025, provided that the bull market phase resumes.

04

Macroeconomic Risk

Despite encouraging on-chain data, macro headwinds still exist. The correlation chart analysis between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin shows that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with the U.S. stock market. As concerns about a global economic recession intensify, the continued weakness in traditional markets may limit Bitcoin's upward potential in the short term.

Figure 5: Correlation between Bitcoin and the US Stock Market

05

Summary

As we've seen in our analysis, key on-chain metrics such as MVRV Z-scores, days of value burns, and Bitcoin cycle capital flows, show healthy and cyclical-consistent behavior, as well as signs of accumulation by long-term holders. However, there are still significant macro uncertainties in the market, which are key risks to watch for.

This round of cycles is slower and more uneven than past cycles, but it has not broken the historical structure. If further deterioration of traditional markets can be avoided, Bitcoin seems ready to welcome the next wave of increase, potentially peaking in the third quarter or early fourth quarter.

Source: Plain Language Blockchain