Dogecoin is consolidating at the 0.15 USD mark: Whales are fleeing, holders are still holding tight.

Dogecoin is "bleeding" under the weight of the very giants that hold it. In just one week, 570 million DOGE have quietly left the hands of the whales – a silent wave of surrender. According to on-chain data, the Output Profit Ratio indicator has used (SOPR) and has turned red. In other words, each DOGE coin moved during this period is a realized loss – reflecting the story of the FOMO gradually fading. However, despite the downward pressure, DOGE only decreased by 2.4% in the past week and the price is accumulating around the mark of 0.15 USD. This ability to hold suggests that buying power still exists – possibly coming from retail investors or the mid-level group – absorbing the selling liquidity and helping to mitigate the price shock. But is this resistance a signal of a bottom formation, or just a pause before the next decline? Whales and Short-Term Investors Let Go Dogecoin has erased all of its post-election gains, currently trading 70% lower than the peak of November 2024 at the mark of 0.49 USD. As a result, most short-term holders (STH) are facing unrealized losses or have sold close to break-even. The chart below shows this distribution. On January 17th, 17.47% of the circulating supply of DOGE was in the hands of the group holding for 1 to 3 months – the third largest group in the market. In fact, the time when this group held the most coincides with the year's peak of DOGE at the mark of 0.41 USD - reflecting a price increase period driven by FOMO. Currently, this group only holds 6.5% of the total supply of DOGE - a sharp decrease compared to the peak period.

This contraction is further reinforced by the negative SOPR index – confirming that many short-term investors are realizing losses, indicating that confidence in the short-term price recovery is diminishing. When whales and short-term investors simultaneously "let go", the support zone of 0.15 USD for DOGE becomes more vulnerable under ongoing selling pressure. Therefore, it cannot be confirmed that DOGE has reached the bottom. LTH Group Still Holds Strong Belief Despite DOGE Adjustment The market structure of Dogecoin still shows fragility. However, a portion of investors with strong belief remains steadfast and unwavering. Notably, the Hodler Net Position Change indicator for ( has turned positive as DOGE reached a local peak of 0.41 USD earlier this year – indicating net accumulation from long-term investors during the market's euphoric phase. In addition, the group holding for 1–2 years has become the main accumulation force – with the holding rate increasing from 28% to 32%, thereby consolidating its position as the largest DOGE holding group currently.

Additionally, the cash flow in the spot market shows a trend of absorption from retail investors, as DOGE recorded a net outflow of 16.48 million VND during the recent drop to 0.14 USD. This indicates that small wallets are absorbing the selling pressure. Overall, the group of retail and long-term investors is "holding" the amount of DOGE distributed by short-term investors and whales – who are witnessing a significant decrease in the number of wallet addresses. Dogecoin is really caught in a tug-of-war in the market. Nevertheless, the accumulation from the LTH group is a positive signal for future recovery. However, for DOGE to break out of the current accumulation zone, there needs to be a complete absorption of selling pressure. Until then, the support level of 0.15 USD remains structurally weak. Therefore, the recent price stability may only be temporary – not yet a clear reversal signal.