Dan Tapiero: Rare market signals indicate that Bitcoin will rise to the sky in the next 6–12 months.

On April 7, the CBOE volatility index (VIX) unexpectedly surged to 60 – a rare threshold often associated with extreme fear and chaos in the financial markets. According to Dan Tapiero, CEO of the investment fund 10Tfund, over the past 35 years, the VIX has only reached this level five times – and each time it has paved the way for a strong recovery of risk assets such as Bitcoin in the following 6 to 12 months.

CBOE Volatility Index | Source: TradingViewKnown as the "fear gauge," the VIX reflects investors' expectations of future volatility, based on options trading data from the S&P 500 index. History shows that unusual spikes in this index – like in 2008 and 2020 – often coincide with market bottoms, moments when waves of panic selling have created historically significant buying opportunities.

Based on this data, Tapiero believes that the current spike in the VIX is likely not an exception. As most of the fear has been reflected in the prices, the market may be at a turning point. He emphasizes, "The odds are leaning towards a more positive outlook."

In agreement, Julien Bittel – Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI) – also pointed out that the technology stock group is experiencing a sell-off like never seen since the COVID-19 pandemic. According to him, more than 55% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100 index currently have a 14-day RSI below 30 – an extreme level that usually only occurs during severe crisis periods like the Lehman Brothers event in 2008 or the COVID-19 shock in 2020.

Survey by the American Association of Individual Investors | Source: X.comBittel explains that after the VIX index hit 60 last week, this implies that the level of volatility has peaked – creating fear in investor sentiment. Quick leads from the US Investors Intelligence Survey(, Bittel compares the current bullish investor ratio at 23.6% – the lowest since December 2008.

In addition, a survey from the American Association of Individual Investors )AAII( shows that up to 62% of participants express a pessimistic outlook – the highest level since March 2009. Expert Bittel commented:

"In other words, the current market sentiment is returning to a state of fear equivalent to the time when the market hit bottom after the global financial crisis."

It is the widespread wave of concern, combined with the rare increase in the VIX volatility index, that is creating a golden opportunity to access the market – especially with risky assets like Bitcoin, in the context of liquidity gradually improving and the flow of funds almost certainly returning.

An opposing viewpoint: Negative signals from the VIX index and Bitcoin

Contrary to the recovery outlook presented by macro experts, market analyst Tony Severino expressed a cautious viewpoint. In a recent post on platform X, he warned that the Bitcoin/VIX ratio may be signaling a bearish trend.

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-35000fa2284b5898cc95c1606108976b(Analysis of Bitcoin VIX by Tony Severino | Source: XSeverino believes that Bitcoin may have peaked in the current cycle, although he still leaves open the possibility of adjusting his view by the end of April. Based on the analysis chart, he points out that a sell signal has appeared since the beginning of January and emphasizes that it is still too early to assert that Bitcoin is ready to enter a new rising cycle, especially when the negative correlation with VIX still exists.

You can see the price of BTC here.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do thorough research before making any decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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