What is the Latest Situation in the Ripple-SEC Lawsuit? When will it end? Here Are The Dates And Predictions Every XRP Holder Should Know!

Legal analyst James Farrell, who opened a detailed thread Twitter( the name )eski on X** offered a comprehensive breakdown of what's next in the high-level legal battle between the Ripple (XRP) and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

According to Farrell, the resolution of the case is probably months, not days, and it depends on a few important procedural steps and strategic decisions.

Currently, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has halted the appeal process, leaving the case in a state of limbo. Farrell explains that two key components are currently being evaluated by the entire SEC Commission:

• A possible settlement offer from Ripple, and
• Request for an indicative decision from Judge Analisa Torres.

What is an Indicative Decision and Why Is It Important?

Farrell explains that it will involve Judge Torres signaling whether Ripple will change its current ruling to allow it to conduct a private sale of unregistered securities using exemptions that are not normally available to companies found to have violated securities laws.

This is very important for Ripple. Farrell argues that without such a change, the company's chances of launching an IPO in the next few years are "basically zero." While other cryptocurrency firms pursue IPOs, Ripple may remain on the sidelines.

If Ripple submits a settlement offer, the entire SEC must vote on it, a process that does not have a specific timeline as of the recent court filings. Whether the SEC will treat the compromise and indicative decision as a unified proposal or as two separate issues is a significant unknown.

If taken separately and the SEC only approves the settlement, Ripple will have to ask for the injunction to be modified after the appeal is dismissed, which would pose a significant risk. In this scenario, Judge Torres could deny the request and leave Ripple with a settlement, but still be barred from private securities sales for up to three years.

Timeline estimation:

• One month for SEC approval
• Additional 3-6 months for Judge Torres to rule on the amendment request

In a second scenario, where the SEC treats both the settlement and the indicative decision as a package deal, the timeline will be even longer. If the SEC denies a section, the appeals process continues, possibly pushing the oral arguments to January 2026, with a possible decision in August 2026.

If both parts are approved, Ripple and the SEC will apply for an indicative decision. The pace of this process can vary, with previous decisions in similar contexts lasting anywhere from three weeks to six months.

Judge Torres will have three options in this case:

• Postponing the decision
• Rejecting the move
• Stating that it will accept the request if the appellate court reconsiders the case

If he chooses the third option, the case will briefly go back to the appeals court before going back to Torres for formal decision, potentially leading to a modified preliminary injunction and voluntary dismissal of the appeal.

Farrell warns against a "surprise development" scenario: Judge Torres initially signaled that he would grant the request, but later changed his mind as a result of his investigations and sent the case back to the appeals court for further proceedings.

Farrell is of the opinion that the Ripple-SEC lawsuit is far from over. Whether through a negotiated settlement or an ongoing lawsuit, resolution will likely take months or even years, and if a settlement is not reached soon, 2026 and 2027 will be realistic targets for ultimate clarity.

*Not investment advice.

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