JPMorgan's Dimon: China and the US should replace tariff wars with mature dialogue, and the AI bubble is driving the birth of revolutionary technology.

J.P. Morgan (JP Morgan) CEO Jamie Dimon shared his thoughts on U.S.-China trade, supply chain restructuring, AI investment bubbles, and international alliances on 4/16. In this regard, he unreservedly commented that the United States cannot fight alone, but also replace the tariff fight with mature dialogue. It also mentioned that both U.S. businesses and the government should take a pragmatic, long-term view of future development, rather than dwelling on short-term interests.

China and the United States should sit down and talk properly, first caring about each other's families.

Dimon stressed that China and the United States need mature dialogue, not the low-end means of "you come and go, mutual sanctions", it is better to care about each other's families when negotiating. More frankly:

Do not agree with the Chinese political system, but acknowledge that many things have indeed been done for the benefit of the people in terms of economic development.

China should also reflect, and the United States should negotiate with its allies instead of going it alone.

The United States cannot rely on America Alone; maintaining global influence depends on Western allies.

Dimon reminds that although the United States has played a leadership role in the past, it cannot revert to isolationism due to internal pressures. He points out:

The economic weakness in Europe and complaints about unfair trade from the United States are indeed justified, but "strengthening alliances is more important than division."

It also warns Western countries to act separately, fearing a repeat of the world situation before World War I and World War II, and accelerating the risk of nuclear proliferation

Tariffs and supply chain issues are bigger than hedge funds de-leveraging.

Dimon stated that although there are fluctuations in the market due to hedge funds reducing their positions in the short term, the real risk lies in the "uncertainty of the tariff war" and companies' inability to plan their Supply Chain.

He likened that today's economic weather forecasts can't predict everything, and businesses should be prepared to deal with all kinds of weather, because uncertainty has become the norm.

Investment confidence is weak, consumption is still holding up, but pressure is rising.

Dimon said the U.S. consumer credit loss rate is now back to "normal levels," but not completely stress-free. Although the unemployment rate has not yet risen, but:

Business owners are starting to hold back.

Mergers and acquisitions as well as investments in medium-sized enterprises have also stagnated.

It is more frank that within three to four months, many companies will begin to report the actual impact of tariffs on performance.

Dimon calls for no labeling, we are all a community of destiny.

Dimon believes that the people's economy is more important than Wall Street, but he also reminds that the money on Wall Street comes from the retirement funds and union funds of citizens. He gives an example that when a large enterprise opens a factory, it will stimulate at least 20 times the jobs and investments in small and medium-sized enterprises, and this economic connectivity cannot be ignored.

The AI investment craze may become a bubble, Dimon says it might but also might not.

Dimon admitted that there will definitely be a bubble in this wave of AI investment, but there are also technologies that will truly change the world. He shared that JPMorgan has already strengthened its risk control and fraud prevention systems with AI, and an AI risk model can save the company hundreds of millions of dollars in losses each year.

For large language models (LLM), one must be wary of the myth that only the largest models are effective. He also reminds us: "Smaller models can achieve 90% effectiveness and are much more cost-effective."

Dimon reveals the criteria for his successor and future aspirations

Dimon says there are succession plans in place, and he believes that future leaders need four qualities: "mindset, curiosity, resilience, and execution."

He even revealed that he might enter the media industry in the future: "I have an idea that can help the media do better, but I'm not saying it now."

Please maintain resilience, practicality, and flexibility to face the future.

From U.S.-China dialogues, global alliances, economic confidence to AI applications, Dimon has always maintained a pragmatic and flexible approach. For him, businesses, like countries, cannot pretend that the environment is always sunny; they must be able to find direction in a storm, adjusting the sails instead of complaining about the wind direction.

This article Morgan Stanley Dimon: China and the US should have mature dialogues to replace the tariff war, AI bubble promotes the birth of revolutionary technology first appeared in Chain News ABMedia.