300 million users and 10% shadow dividends: Analyzing the "Three-Phase Growth" logic of BNB in 2026

Author: danny

As encryption policies become clearer and mainstream capital floods into the crypto market, the valuation logic of industry leaders like Binance and BNB has undergone a structural transformation. BNB is no longer just a functional token for exchanges but has matured into a complex, multi-dimensional, composite asset that requires establishing a multi-faceted valuation framework.

This article proposes a “Three-Phase Growth Model” to assess its fair market value. The model isolates and analyzes three distinct but interconnected economic engines: the Exchange Curve (driven by implicit dividends and structural deflation), the Public Chain Curve (driven by on-chain commodity demand, liquidity, and staking), and the emerging Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) Curve (driven by institutional capital access and arbitrage).

Regardless of bullish or bearish sentiment, this article aims to discuss the valuation model of this multi-dimensional, composite cryptocurrency.

Introduction

In 1873, after the end of the Selangor Civil War in the Malay Peninsula (Klang War)—the darkest hour (present-day Kuala Lumpur, which was not yet a city but a muddy tin minefield).

At that time, the Klang Valley was a true “dead city.” After years of bloody battles between the Hai Shan and Yixing gangs, the mines were flooded, houses burned to ashes, and plagues rampant. Tin prices plummeted, and all merchants believed it was over here, fleeing back to Malacca and Singapore.

By then, Ye Yayi had already reached the end of his rope. His savings were exhausted by the war, and his miners, starving, were about to rebel.

His men advised him: “Let’s go. There’s no hope here anymore. As long as the green mountains remain, you’re not afraid of no firewood.”

That “riding a horse” moment: Ye Yayi did not leave.

According to historical records, this burly, fiery-tempered Southeast Asian godfather rode around the devastated ruins. He pulled on the reins, looked at his fellow townsmen preparing to flee, and made a decision that defied commercial logic.

He shouted to his subordinates: “As long as the tin mines are underground, Kuala Lumpur will never die! Those leaving now, don’t think about coming back to share the spoils later!”

This was not just a slogan but a high-stakes gamble. Ye Yayi rode his horse overnight to Malacca. He was not fleeing but borrowing money. Using his reputation and personal guarantee, he borrowed enough to buy rice and tools from an old friend (some say a British merchant, others say a wealthy merchant from Malacca). With this, he maintained order in the city, distributed rice to miners, repaired roads, and even opened casinos and opium dens to collect taxes to pay the British “protection fee.”

In 1879, just as Ye Yayi was about to collapse, global tin prices suddenly surged.

It seemed even God was on his side. Thanks to his persistence, Kuala Lumpur’s mines were the only ones ready to operate at any time. Wealth flooded in like a deluge, and Ye Yayi instantly became the richest man in Southeast Asia, laying the foundation for Kuala Lumpur’s emergence as a major metropolis.

“There is no sky too high to climb, no mountain too steep to endure.”

1. Macroeconomic Background: The Crypto Asset Landscape of 2025

The macroeconomic environment in 2025 is transitioning from speculative frenzy to institutional integration.

1.1 Post-“GENIUS Act” Era

The financial landscape of 2025 has fundamentally changed due to the enactment of the “GENIUS Act,” which establishes clear regulatory standards for digital assets and stablecoins. This regulatory certainty has become a catalyst for institutional participation, allowing corporate treasuries to hold tokenized assets with legal protections.

The clarity provided by the act has spurred a surge in M&A activity, increasing from $1.3 billion in 2024 to $17.7 billion in 2025. This environment of integration and legalization paves the way for listed companies to adopt active digital asset treasury strategies, removing fears of regulatory retaliation.

1.2 Binance’s Growth Rate

User adoption metrics in 2025 indicate a structural shift in how crypto assets are used. Binance’s user base has expanded to over 300 million, with significant activity increases in payment layers and wealth management products.

Binance’s spot and derivatives trading volumes exceed $64 trillion. To put this in perspective, this surpasses the GDP of most major countries, highlighting Binance’s dominant liquidity.

User growth: The user base surpasses 300 million registered accounts. This metric is crucial for the “network effect” part of valuation (Metcalfe’s Law), indicating that the utility of holding BNB (for fee discounts and access) grows quadratically with the user base.

Beyond trading achievements, Binance is also making strides in other areas:

Binance Pay: This vertical processed $121 billion in transactions across 1.36 billion transactions. Integration with over 20 million merchants indicates BNB is being used as a medium of exchange, not just a speculative asset. This “money circulation velocity” supports the token’s currency premium.

Binance Earn: About 14.9 million users utilized financial products, generating over $1.2 billion in rewards. This capital locking reduces effective circulation speed, acting as a soft staking mechanism, removing supply from the order book.

Web3 Wallets: With 13.2 million users and $546.7 billion in transaction volume, Web3 wallets serve as a key bridge between centralized exchanges and the decentralized chain (BNB Chain). This integration reduces friction for users transferring liquidity onto the chain, supporting BNB Chain’s TVL.

This high-turnover capital flow and regulatory safety environment lay fertile ground for BNB’s three growth curves. Unlike the retail-driven bull market of 2021, the 2025 valuation expansion is supported by exchange business growth, organic on-chain and off-chain resource integration, and real-world revenue.

2. First Growth Curve: Exchange Ecosystem—Shadow Dividends and Deflation Alpha

The first growth curve is the Exchange Curve (Exchange Curve). It values BNB as a “pseudo-equity” tool within the Binance ecosystem. Although BNB is not equity, it captures the platform’s economic surplus through two powerful mechanisms: implicit dividends (via Launchpool, HODLer airdrops, etc.) and quasi-equity deflation (via Auto-Burn).

2.1 Shadow Dividend Theory

In traditional finance, companies distribute profits via cash dividends. In crypto economics, regulatory restrictions often prevent direct cash distributions. Binance circumvents this with an “implicit dividend” model, where value is transferred not as cash but as equity in new ventures (Launchpool tokens).

This mechanism functions as both a customer acquisition tool for new projects and a revenue-generating tool for BNB holders. The value flow is as follows:

Project demand: New projects seek Binance’s liquidity and user base.

Project contribution: Projects allocate a portion (usually 2-7%) of their total token supply to Launchpool.

Distribution: This supply is proportionally distributed to users staking BNB.

Realized gains: BNB holders receive these tokens with immediate market value, effectively realizing “dividends.”

2.1.1 Annual Yield Quantification

The speed of these dividends accelerated sharply in 2024-2025. In 2024, the total value of tokens distributed via Launchpool exceeded $1.75 billion, nearly four times the $370 million in 2023.

Although the launch rate of Launchpool tokens decreased significantly in 2025, Launchpool remains a major yield-generating weapon. High-profile projects still require staking BNB to earn airdrop rewards.

Typically, 85% of Launchpool rewards are allocated to BNB stakers (relative to FDUSD). This compels users seeking exposure to hot new tokens to buy/borrow BNB.

Starting in 2025, the “shadow dividends” from HODLer airdrops increased markedly:

Binance introduced “Hodler Airdrops” to reward loyalty. This mechanism retroactively distributes tokens to users holding BNB in Simple Earn products.

Users’ deposits in Simple Earn (flexible or fixed) are snapshot, and partner project tokens are airdropped.

Statistics show that in 2025, 57 Hodler Airdrops were distributed.

User analysis indicates that holding 100 BNB in 2025 yields a cumulative return of $7,160.

Return calculation: 7,160 / (100 * 850) ≈ 8.4%. (Note: some users report yields over 10.29%)

This portion of earnings can be understood as “shadow dividends.” They are not paid in BNB but in external assets (like APRO, BANANA, LISTA, etc.). However, these are direct cash flows attributable to those assets. “Blue-chip” crypto assets with 10% yields are significantly higher than risk-free rates (4-5%) or the S&P 500 dividend yield @E6~1.5%(, justifying valuation premiums.

)# 2.2 Auto-Burn: Structural Deflation

The second component of the Exchange Curve is BNB Auto Burn, divided into quarterly burns for the exchange and real-time burns on BNB Chain. This burn mechanism resembles a buyback-and-burn deflationary process, with higher transparency and immutability.

2.2.1 Quarterly Burn of the Exchange Curve

Each quarter, Binance destroys a certain amount of BNB based on trading performance and fees.

2025 Burn Data:

• Q1 2025 ###(30th burn): Burned 1,580,000 BNB, worth about $1.115 billion
• Q2 2025 ((31st burn): Burned 1,579,207 BNB, worth about $916 million
• Q3 2025 )(32nd burn): Burned 1,595,599 BNB, worth about $1.024 billion
• Q4 2025 ((33rd burn): Burned 1,441,281 BNB, worth about $1.21 billion

Total for 2025: 6,196,087 BNB burned, worth approximately $5 billion, representing 4.2% of circulating supply.

Notably, in October 2025, 1,441,281 BNB were removed from circulation, valued at about $1.208 billion. This single burn alone reduced supply by about 1% in one quarter.

2.2.2 BNB Real-Time Burn (BEP-95)

Unlike corporate buybacks, BNB Auto-Burn (on-chain) is algorithmic, determined by a formula based on BNB price (P) and the number of blocks generated on BSC.

This automatic burn replaces the initial volume-based burn, creating an objective, verifiable, and predictable supply contraction. The formula used in 2025 is:

B = N * K / P

Where:

• B = amount of BNB to be burned
• N = total number of blocks generated on BNB Smart Chain (BSC) in the quarter
• P = average BNB to USD price
• K = price anchoring constant (initially 1000, adjusted to ~465 via BEP updates)

When BNB’s price (P) falls, the denominator decreases, increasing the burn amount (B(. Conversely, if BNB’s price rises to around ), the original amount of tokens burned decreases, but the value of the burn remains high. This protects the ecosystem from over-burning during bull markets while accelerating deflation during bear markets.

By the end of 2025, this mechanism has cumulatively removed about 280,000 BNB. Although smaller than the volume burned via the exchange curve, it provides continuous, transactional deflationary pressure, linearly correlated with network usage.

This formula ensures that burns are counter-cyclical in token quantity (more tokens burned when prices are low) but continuous in USD value.

2.2.3 Supply Shock from Deflation

The ultimate goal of the BNB protocol is to reduce total supply to 100 million tokens. As of December 2025, circulating supply is about 137.7 million BNB.

• Remaining to burn: ~37 million BNB
• Current burn rate: ~1 million BNB per quarter
• Estimated timeline:

37 / 1.5 ≈ 25.1 quarters, about 6.25 years

Target completion around mid-2032.

For investors in 2025, holding BNB means owning a piece of the pie, which will shrink by about 27% over the investment horizon. In financial modeling terms, it’s akin to a company canceling 27% of its float. If BNB’s market cap remains unchanged over the next 7 years, the price per token would mathematically appreciate by about 37% solely due to supply reduction. This provides a strong “deflation alpha” independent of market sentiment.

In traditional equity valuation, a company repurchasing $4 billion worth of stock (about 3-4% of market cap) in a year is seen as an aggressive bullish signal. For BNB, this is automatic. The deflationary pressure acts as a constant upward force on (P), assuming demand (D) remains stable or grows.

Some analysts argue that the burn mechanism creates a “soft bottom.” If BNB’s price drops sharply, the burn formula stipulates that the number of tokens burned increases, accelerating deflation and correcting supply-demand imbalances—this view is debated.

( 3. Second Growth Curve: BNB Chain Economic Engine

The second growth curve departs from centralized exchanges, focusing on BNB as a decentralized computing resource. In this context, BNB is the raw material powering a decentralized global computer )Gas$850 , akin to a commodity. This curve is driven by BNB Chain’s technical performance, on-chain activity, and DeFi protocol “staking” demand. (Related reading: Under human nature, above mechanism: using Chaoshan pawnshop as an anchor to decode BNB Chain ecosystem empire)

(# 3.1 Overall Market Environment

2025 is a year of “layered solidification” of on-chain activity: Solana wins the “casino” )Meme/high-frequency trading( victory, BNB Chain maintains its base with a strong retail user base and “zero fee” strategy, while Base, through Coinbase’s support, becomes the fastest-growing L2.

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User scale ###DAU(: BNB Chain relies on existing retail users and “zero Gas” strategy to stay first, with Solana close behind.

Capital flow )DEX Volume(: Solana, leveraging Meme and high-frequency trading, leads in capital turnover.

Asset accumulation )TVL(: Ethereum remains the place for whales and institutions to store “old money,” far ahead of other chains.

)# 3.2 Technical Architecture and Capacity

By 2025, BNB Chain has evolved into a multi-layer ecosystem including BNB Smart Chain (BSC), opBNB (Layer 2), and BNB Greenfield (Storage) (though the latter two are still nascent).

BNB Chain processes 12 to 17 million transactions daily, second only to Solana, and is the most densely retail-populated chain globally, with over 2 million daily active users.

In 2025, BNB Chain implemented advanced “Gas reduction” strategies, even achieving “zero gas” for stablecoin transfers. This gives it an absolute advantage in stablecoin payments and micro high-frequency transfers. Interestingly, BNB Chain processed DEX trading volume equivalent to Italy’s GDP (about $2 trillion) throughout the year.

3.3 BEP-95: Real-Time Scarcity

While Auto-Burn (exchange curve) is a quarterly event, BEP-95 is a per-transaction real-time burn. A portion of each Gas fee paid on BSC is permanently destroyed (see details in Chapter 2).

Burn speed: As of December 2025, about 279,736 BNB have been burned via this mechanism.

This mechanism makes BNB a “sonic currency” during high usage periods. When network activity surges—such as during the Meme coin frenzy at year-end 2025—the burn rate accelerates.

With the “Yellow Season” and Meme coin trading on BNB Chain, with over 2.37 million daily active users and DEX volumes occasionally surpassing Solana (reaching $1.3 billion daily), Gas burns become a key contributor to scarcity.

3.3 DeFi and Liquidity Staking Derivatives (LSD)

The most significant development in on-chain curves in 2025 is the explosion of Liquidity Staking Derivatives (LSD) market. Historically, BNB holders had to choose between staking (yielding about 2-3%) or deploying capital in DeFi.

Lista DAO and slisBNB: The emergence of Lista DAO changed this calculus. By late 2025, total locked value (TVL) in Lista DAO exceeded $2.85 billion. It introduced slisBNB, a liquid staking token allowing users to earn staking rewards while using the token as collateral.

Integration with Launchpool/soft staking: A key innovation in 2025 was integrating DeFi assets (like slisBNB) into Binance Launchpool. Users can stake BNB in Lista DAO to earn on-chain yields, receive slisBNB, then stake that in Launchpool for airdrops. This “double yield” increases BNB’s stickiness, removing opportunity costs of DeFi participation and locking more supply in smart contracts.

3.4 On-Chain Vitality, Capital Flows, and Trading Willingness

BNB Chain in 2025 adopts a “defense first, counterattack later” stance. It successfully defended existing retail users in the first half of the year, then found its rhythm in the second half, leveraging Binance’s main site resources to counterattack. Highlights include Binance Alpha’s explosion (enabling PancakeSwap) and Aster’s activity, creating massive trading volume, though ecosystem innovation shows signs of fatigue, mostly copying (e.g., Meme replication).

In 2025, the average TVL on BNB Chain remains around $65 billion (peak at $90 billion). Though below Ethereum’s peak, its capital turnover and trading activity are higher, thanks to Aster’s “trading incentive campaigns,” Binance Alpha’s “point-boosting” activities, and the Meme rush of Four Meme. These components enable BNB Chain to compete actively in trading volume, sometimes surpassing competitors.

![]###https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b068c62440a99b72a3db05eabb5c4560.webp(

)# 3.5 Binance Alpha Phenomenon: Pancake’s Comeback Battle

Binance Alpha’s performance in 2025 can be described as “the consort enters the palace.” It successfully bridged the huge user base of CEX (centralized exchanges) with DeFi liquidity, creating a “spillover effect.”

It seamlessly diverted hundreds of millions of Binance App users via “One-Click” to on-chain interactions. Data shows its MAU once exceeded 100 million, with many CEX users engaging on-chain for the first time via Alpha. On May 20, 2025, Binance Alpha set a single-day trading volume record of $20 billion, an astonishing figure in the “Level 1.5 market” outside the main board.

Behind this explosion, PancakeSwap was also propelled back to the top DEX by trading volume (even surpassing Uniswap in Q2). According to incomplete on-chain stats, Binance’s “One-Click DEX” entry contributed about 12% of new PancakeSwap users; and because Alpha offers zero-fee/low-slippage arbitrage channels between CEX and DEX, up to 18% of PancakeSwap’s trading volume came from arbitrage related to Binance Alpha.

Essentially, Binance’s massive traffic (users) and liquidity (funds) are “feeding” PancakeSwap. For PancakeSwap, it’s no longer just a DEX but an “on-chain extension” of Binance exchange and a “new asset testing ground.” However, over time, market liquidity diminishes, studios monopolize, and the glory of Binance Alpha gradually declines.

(# 3.6 BNB Chain’s “Aster” Phenomenon: Power Brings Miracles

Aster is the biggest dark horse of 2025 and one of the most controversial protocols. Relying on aggressive trading incentives and industry leader’s hype, Aster’s daily trading volume on some days even exceeded )100 million, once surpassing industry leader Hyperliquid, forcibly pulling BNB Chain back into the DeFi spotlight. (But if you look at holdings, Aster might only have 1/5 of its competitors.)

(Aster’s positioning: https://x.com/agintender/status/1972549024856318180?s=20)

Despite the astonishing data, the market generally suspects large-scale wash trading and volume inflation. This makes BNB Chain’s Perp data look very impressive, but real user stickiness may be less than Solana and Hyperliquid.

Though criticized for “data faking,” Aster is a “strong shot in the arm” for BNB Chain.

In 2025, Solana’s “dog frenzy” drained most active funds. BNB Chain’s spot (Alpha and PancakeSwap) remains stable but lacks explosive growth; coupled with Hyperliquid’s watchful eye, Aster provides a reason for funds to “move”—high-yield farming.

Management knows the dangers of wash trading, but from a macro perspective: every transaction consumes BNB as Gas, so it makes sense. In 2025, Aster contributed about 15-20% of BNB Chain’s on-chain Gas consumption, directly driving BNB’s deflation and supporting its price.

In crypto circles, TVL and Volume are essentially advertising. Aster’s impressive trading data convinces institutions and retail that “BNB Chain can still fight,” helping retain some existing funds and preventing them from flowing to competitors.

Unlike Hyperliquid (users build real trading strategies for livelihood) or Jupiter (retailers gamble on Meme price swings), most of Aster’s volume lacks genuine counterparty demand. When token prices fall, arbitrage opportunities vanish (value returned < fees), and volume drops to zero instantly. To sustain high volume, Aster must keep minting tokens to reward traders, falling into a passive spiral of time-for-space. Data shows Aster’s trading volume and fee capture are entering a downward trend.

Next, it may depend on the relay of the prediction market.

( 4. Third Growth Curve: Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) Arbitrage

The third growth curve is a new product of 2025: the “Altcoin Digital Asset Treasury” )Digital Asset Treasury, DAT###. This phenomenon reflects BNB’s financialization as a corporate reserve asset, aiming to replicate Bitcoin’s “MicroStrategy script,” but unlike Bitcoin, BNB is an income-generating asset.

(# 4.1 DAT Argument: Why Public Companies Buy BNB

Public companies in the US and internationally have begun adopting BNB as their main treasury asset. The logic includes three aspects:

Anti-inflation: BNB has structural deflation features (due to burns).

Yield generation: Unlike idle Bitcoin, BNB generates about 2-5% native yield via staking, HODLer airdrops, and Launchpool.

Token-Equity Arbitrage: The trading price of these companies’ assets relative to their NAV )NAV### may carry a premium, allowing them to raise cheap capital to buy more BNB.

$200 # 4.2 CEA Industries (Nasdaq: BNC)

CEA Industries, formerly a borderline delisted e-cigarette tech company, has become the “BNB version of MicroStrategy.” The company explicitly aims to acquire 1% of BNB’s total supply (about 1.3-1.4 million tokens).

CEA issues stock via “at-the-market” ###ATM( offerings, selling shares at a premium. They sold 856,275 shares at an average of $15.09 to buy BNB. As of November 18, 2025, CEA reports holding 515,054 BNB, worth about $48.1 million.

Notably, the company reported a return of about 1.5% over several months (August to November), implying an annualized yield over 5%. This yield sets a good example—covering capital costs (like convertible note interest) and inspiring other treasury companies.

The company’s cost basis is about $851.29 per BNB. By year-end 2025, with BNB trading near this level, the portfolio is at breakeven/profit margin. However, the large position (0.37% of total supply) effectively removes significant spot liquidity from the market, further reducing liquidity.

Currently, CEA’s )NAV premium rate (mNAV) is around 2.1x, meaning investors are willing to pay $2.1 to buy assets worth $1 in BNB. Some analysts believe this is because it’s the only channel for institutions to buy BNB on Nasdaq. But this article argues it’s mainly due to BNB’s leverage effect: in Q4 2025, as BNB surged past $1,200 (a new high), BNC’s stock price often outperformed BNB spot by 1.5x - 2x. But when BNB retraced 5%, BNC often fell 10-15%. This is because, once market sentiment cools, the high NAV premium (up to 2x) quickly compresses (valuation kills).

4.3 Nano Labs (Nasdaq: NA)

Nano Labs, a Hong Kong chip design company listed on Nasdaq, follows.

$45 million ATM: Nano Labs reached an agreement to raise $45 million via equity, specifically to fund its “BNB and crypto asset reserve strategy.” Additionally, Nano Labs integrated this treasury with its operations, launching the “NBNB Plan,” building real-world asset infrastructure on BNB Chain ###RWA(, and issued $500 million in convertible notes to actively acquire BNB. By mid-2025, it accumulated about 128,000 BNB.

By year-end 2025, its publicly held assets are valued at approximately $112 million - $160 million (including BNB and a small amount of BTC). While still far from $1 billion, for a small-cap stock with a market cap of only a few tens of millions, it’s essentially “full position.”

Combined with CEA and Nano Labs, over 643,000 BNB are locked in corporate treasuries in 2025, accounting for nearly 0.5% of circulating supply. As this trend matures, BNB’s “free float” decreases, increasing volatility and upward price pressure during demand surges.

)# 4.4 Premium/Discount Arbitrage Cycle

The engine of the DAT curve is NAV premium. As long as there is trading premium, the listed company can continuously raise funds to buy the token, further pushing up its trading premium. (Related: How to proceed after a 50% drop? Decoding the anti-fragile mechanism and breaking the deadlock of DAT enterprises)

If CEA Industries’ stock ($BNC) trades at a $600 million market cap but its underlying BNB is worth $481 million, then its trading premium is about 25%.

The company can issue new shares at this inflated valuation. Investors buy shares to gain BNB exposure (possibly unable to hold tokens directly due to restrictions). The company uses cash to buy more BNB. This buying pressure pushes BNB’s price higher. As BNB’s price rises, the company’s NAV increases. If the premium persists, the stock price further appreciates. But the question is, in this market environment, are institutions still willing to buy DAT?

There is also a fourth growth curve, but it’s still too early to tell.

Off-topic, will Abu Dhabi, recently announced as Binance’s global headquarters, be able to stay aligned with Binance’s industry giant ship? Will the honeymoon lovers turn into a lasting relationship? Let’s wait and see.

Conflict of interest: The author holds (.

) Postscript

Traditional crypto valuation models ###MV=PQ( cannot capture BNB’s complexity. Therefore, a segmented sum-of-the-parts )SOTP( model is recommended to aggregate the value of the three curves.

BNB = V_Yield + V_Commodity + V_MonetaryPremium

Component A: V_Yield (Exchange Curve)

We can compare BNB’s valuation with its closest public market peer Coinbase )COIN###.

Coinbase metrics (2025): Coinbase’s P/E ratio $BNB P/E### is about 20.51, P/S ratio (P/S) is 10.34. Its 2024 revenue is approximately $6.2 billion.

For Binance’s metrics, readers can perform their own calculations.

Component B: V_Commodity (Public Chain Curve)(

Derived from Gas demand and TVL value.

BNB Chain processes about 17 million transactions daily. Using a “network value to transaction” )NVT( ratio comparable to high-speed L1 chains, comparing ETH and SOL.

Component C: V_MonetaryPremium )DAT Curve(

Driven by institutional accumulation and speculative premium.

As DAT’s locked supply increases, the marginal price of available BNB rises. “Floating supply” )Tradable Supply( decreases.

Historically, assets held as institutional reserves (like gold or Bitcoin) have a certain premium over their industrial use, due to liquidity access (shell value).