Bitcoin big dump in the early morning: Don't just focus on the Candlestick! This layer of Liquidity logic is the key to profit and loss. The sudden fall of Bitcoin in the early morning left countless investors exclaiming "out of nowhere," but if you peel away the fog of the market, you'll find that the core of this big dump is the liquidity tightening and capital withdrawal that most people ignore—if you don't understand this, you'll always be passively following the market fluctuations. The first key thrust is the "super blood-sucking machine" of U.S. Treasury auctions. Currently, against the backdrop of a government shutdown, the TGA (Treasury General Account) has long been a "dry reservoir," and the market is already in a state of liquidity shortage. Although the Federal Reserve is attempting to inject funds from the banking side to "quench thirst," the absorption power of the bond market, this "funding black hole," far exceeds expectations: this time, the nominal scale of the three-month and six-month U.S. Treasury auctions is 163 billion, but the actual scale reached 170.69 billion, and after deducting the Federal Reserve's reinvestment portion, 163 billion in funds were directly drained from the financial market in a short period. If it were a period of loose liquidity, this amount of funds might be insignificant, but in the current tightening environment, the withdrawal of large funds is enough to destabilize risk assets. The fall of Bitcoin is essentially a direct response to the outflow of funds—just like excessive blood loss can cause dizziness in the human body, a market that loses financial support will naturally suffer a "great injury". The second layer of pressure comes from the "hawkish cold air" released by the Federal Reserve. In Goolsbee's latest speech, he maintained a hawkish stance, directly shattering the market's expectations for a rate cut in December: the previous nearly 70% probability of a rate cut has significantly declined, and the expectation of a rate cut was originally a "stimulant" for risk assets. Once expectations weaken, short-term market sentiment is like being splashed with cold water, increasing the pressure sharply—it's like everyone is looking forward to warmer weather to go out for a spring outing, only to suddenly learn that the cold air will continue, causing optimistic sentiment to dissipate instantly. When the two mountains of "liquidity tightness" and "emotional cooling" overlap, the weakening of risk assets becomes inevitable, and Bitcoin, as a liquidity-sensitive asset, reacts particularly violently. More critically, the market is very likely to fall into a "pessimistic cycle" at this time: the fall triggers selling, and the selling further exacerbates the decline, creating a vicious cycle. But there is no need to panic, as the signals for breaking the deadlock are actually clear. On one hand, once the government resumes operation, replenishing the TGA account will be like recharging a dry pool, and market liquidity will gradually improve; on the other hand, if the Federal Reserve slows down the absorption of funds through overnight reverse repurchase agreements, short-term liquidity pressure will also ease accordingly. It is important to understand that the liquidity cycle is never "a stagnant pool"; it is more like the changing of seasons—no matter how long the winter lasts, spring will eventually come. For investors, what should be understood right now is: focusing on the rise and fall of Candlesticks is not as important as understanding the direction of Liquidity. In difficult market phases, there are often hidden opportunities for positioning. On the path of compound interest, one person may walk fast, but a group can go far together—looking forward to walking with you and seizing cyclical opportunities together. Bitcoin fell big in the early morning: don't just focus on Candlesticks! This layer of Liquidity logic is the key to profit and loss. The sudden fall of Bitcoin in the early morning left countless investors exclaiming "completely without warning," but clearing the market fog reveals that the core of this big dump is the liquidity tightening and capital withdrawal that most people overlook—if you don't understand this, you'll always be passively following the market fluctuations. The first key thrust is the "super blood-sucking machine" of U.S. Treasury auctions. Currently, in the context of the U.S. government shutdown, the TGA (Treasury General Account) has long been a "dry reservoir", and the market is already in a state of liquidity shortage. Although the Federal Reserve is trying to inject funds from the banking side to "quench thirst", the swallowing power of the bond market, this "capital black hole", far exceeds expectations: in this auction of three-month and six-month U.S. Treasuries, the nominal size was 163 billion, but the actual size reached 170.69 billion. After deducting the Federal Reserve's reinvestment portion, 163 billion in funds were directly siphoned off from the financial market in a short period. If it were a period of loose liquidity, this amount of funds might not be worth mentioning, but in the current tightening environment, the withdrawal of large amounts of capital is enough to destabilize risk assets. The fall of Bitcoin is essentially a direct reaction to the outflow of funds - just like the human body becomes dizzy from excessive blood loss, a market that loses financial support will naturally suffer a "severe injury." The second layer of pressure comes from the "hawkish cold air" released by the Federal Reserve. In Goolsbee's latest speech, he maintained a hawkish stance, directly shattering the market's expectations for a rate cut in December: the probability of a rate cut, which was previously nearly 70%, has significantly dropped, while the expectation of a rate cut was originally a "tonic" for risk assets. Once expectations weaken, the short-term market sentiment feels like it has been doused with cold water, increasing the pressure significantly—it's like everyone is looking forward to warmer weather to go out for a spring outing, only to suddenly learn that the cold air will continue, causing optimistic sentiment to dissipate instantly. When the two mountains of "liquidity tightening" and "emotional cooling" overlap, the weakening of risk assets has become inevitable, and Bitcoin, as a liquidity-sensitive asset, reacts particularly violently. More critically, the market is prone to fall into a "pessimistic cycle" at this time: the decline triggers sell-offs, which further exacerbates the fall, creating a vicious cycle. But there is no need to panic; the signals for breaking the deadlock are actually clear. On one hand, once the government resumes operations, the replenishment of the TGA account will be like rehydrating a dried-up pond, and market liquidity will gradually improve; on the other hand, if the Federal Reserve slows down the absorption of funds through overnight reverse repos, short-term liquidity pressure will also ease accordingly. It is important to know that the liquidity cycle is never a "stagnant pool"; it is more like the changing of the seasons—no matter how long the cold winter lasts, spring will eventually come. For investors, what should be understood right now is: instead of watching the fluctuations of the Candlestick, it is better to understand the direction of Liquidity. The difficult stages of the market often hide opportunities for layout. On the road of compound interest, one person can walk fast, but a group of people can go far together—looking forward to walking with you and seizing cyclical opportunities. #广场发币瓜分千U奖池 #参与创作者认证计划月领$10,000 #十二月降息预测

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Morning BTC operation share on 11.5 BTC is expected to fluctuate around 101000-102000, with a downward target of 98000-96000. Recently, the market has been completely dominated by bears, with prices continuing to decline weakly along the lower Bollinger Band. A large bearish candle directly fell to the 98888.80 point, strongly breaking below the key psychological support level of 100000, leading to a noticeable increase in market panic. From the 4-hour chart observation, the bearish candles show a continuous downward trend, and the overall weak pattern has not changed at all. During this period, although there were occasional slight recoveries in price, the progression is slow and lacks momentum, with extremely weak recovery strength. This kind of movement is not a trend reversal signal, but rather a deliberate illusion of a false upward trend created by the market maker. Investors should be wary of such temporary recoveries to avoid misjudging entry points. #广场发币瓜分千U奖池 #参与创作者认证计划月领$10,000 #十二月降息预测