Resumo do Gold 10: Previsão institucional para a decisão do Banco Central do Reino Unido (2) - Taxa de juros provavelmente permanecerá inalterada, ritmo do QT pode acelerar, votação pode se tornar mais dovish

GoldenOctober2024

2024-09-19 06:45:52

Geração do resumo em andamento

Goldman Sachs: Expected to maintain a 5.0% interest rate with a voting ratio of 7-2. The scale of APF reduction is expected to be 100 billion pounds. Continuous interest rate cuts from November this year to August next year will raise the interest rate to 3.00%, with a probability of 40%. 2. Danske Bank: Expected to maintain the status quo in September and December, with a 25 basis points interest rate cut in November due to high service industry inflation and wage growth. The bank is expected to implement another 100 billion pounds of QT. The euro is expected to slightly rise in the short term. 3. Barclays: Expected to maintain the interest rate with an 8-1 voting result, with a risk tendency of 6-3. The scale of Asset Purchase Facility (APF) reduction is expected to be 100 billion pounds. The interest rate is expected to reach 3.75% by August 2025. 4. Standard Chartered Bank: Expected to maintain a 5.0% interest rate. The recovery of the economy and the sustained increase of wages will keep the Bank of England stable on the path of interest rate cuts instead of accelerating it. A 25 basis points interest rate cut is expected in November. 5. JPMorgan Chase: Expected to maintain a 5.0% interest rate, although a series of weak economic data were released by the UK last week, the economy is still firmly expanding. The scale of QT plan is expected to be expanded to 120 billion pounds. 6. BNP Paribas: Expected to maintain the interest rate and guidance, with a voting result of 7-2. The pace of 100 billion pounds of QT for the year is expected to remain unchanged, but there is a significant risk of it increasing to 120 billion pounds. The interest rate is expected to drop to 4.75% by the end of this year. 7. Canadian Imperial Commercial Bank: Expected to maintain the interest rate, and the support of Ding Gela and Ramsden for interest rate cuts will not be surprising. The target of APF reduction is 100 billion pounds. Another interest rate cut is expected in November, and continuous interest rate cuts may occur in the first half of next year.

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