We are not in a distributive top.
This further backs up my claim.
This is some distribution but into HEAVY accumulation.
We have had OGs selling billions and we have been above $100k for 7 months now. 189 days.
Each previous top has given nowhere near that amount of time to get out.
Tops never, ever do.
2013: 21 days before break of structure and nuke
2017: 38 days before break of structure and nuke
2021: 96 days, which wasn't the market top
2021 actual top: 38 days before break of structure & nuke
We have now been consolidating above $100k for twice as long as any area of topping period we ha

We will hit $200k before we ever see below $90k again.
Seeing SO MANY people sharing bearish charts and doom today...
And one of the main ones is the bull market losing its trend line... but they are only running the trend from $74k.
No bueno.
Bitcoin is in a relatively local rising wedge that is technically a bearish pattern.
However, pushes to the upside(could even call it a fake out), are very common.
And my base case is that we get something like this.
$95k
$126k
$200k+
Below $100k
Volatility is brewing as we speak. Tighest monthly bollinger bands ever...
And so far, BTC has not had any le

Bitcoin is going to rally to at least $145,000 from here.
And there is a 99% chance it will find at least its local bottom in the next 5 days.
And this is based off of the last 7 years worth of Death cross data since the beginning of the 2017 bull run.
This is hard data, not my opinion.
Every time the 1D 50SMA and 200SMA cross over to the downside(blue line goes below yellow line), that is called a Death cross.
And every single time it has done it in the last 7+ years, it has marked at least a local bottom within about +/- 5 days, with at minimum a 45% rally from the low.
We are about to get t

Really nice to see $HYPR bouncing back here.
These guys(@hyprfund) have one of the best crossovers of Web2 and Web3 i have seen for a Crypto token.
They partner with established irl brands and enable $HYPR holders to gain access to fractionalised ownership of thr company via decentralised investment.
And they've sold out multiple rounds for many companies already.
In a sea of BS larps, This is IRL business x Crypto utility in full working action.
Price breaking the downtrend here and looking solid for continuation after confirming this break as support.
In all honesty, I allocated heavily to t

Bitcoin looking very impulsive on this push up.
Nice.
Totally different PA from off of the initial bottom.
Hard impulses higher with shallow pullbacks, consistently.
Break above $106k and we clear the first hurdle.
Then we have $108k and $113k.
SO MANY shorts sitting at $113k, which is the initial main target.
We re-evaluate at that point.

Not sure how many time I need to keep saying this...
But the top is not in.
No matter how many doom posters are out there and no matter how many people have flipped bearish this last week...
It doesn't change the hard objective data.
You have to remember that just because Bitcoin pushes very close to losing a key level, does not mean that it will.
You must be the most bullish at key support, not the most bearish... but everyone still does this wrong every time and this is painfully obvious when you combine it with sentiment analysis.
The trend is your friend, and the whole time we are followin

Our best case scenario seems to be unfolding here.
As usual, the market pushing to the closest point of invalidation, scaring everyone to the max, only to pull it back at the very last minute.
I have been covering this situation delicately and being very vocal about this process and the top not being in.
The bearish sentiment collectively had reached a high I had never really seen before, with every important chart screaming its not over, and BTC above $100k.
And even with all the attention, Bitcoin showing strength here into the weekly close and getting back above the 50 SMA.
President Trump

We are all being psyop'd.
I have spent hours today looking at all the charts that matter...
Studying the macro and past precedented...
And I cannot reconcile that the market has topped here.
I'm trying to be as objective as possible, but I just don't see it.
Beyond Bitcoin being very close to breaking a few MA's and some Weekly bearish divs...
I'm just not seeing it.
We have BTC.D looking extremely bearish after a clean break of the 2.5 year uptrend and 1W 50SMA, and now putting in a very clean retest of that break.
That is not how a cycle ends.
We have TOTAL3 cup and handling in a cup and han

The markets are an absolute bastard.
They absolutely LOVE pushing to the absolute upper limit of stress and technical invalidation...
Only to reverse right after everyone cannot take it anymore.
We're familiar with the 1W 50SMA... and it seems like everyone on X is now watching it.
We also have the 1D 365 EMA, very key MA also. And we can see this is serving as a key support for our recent uptrend.
So what next?
What the bulls want to see:
- Maximum of a few closes below as deviations, with a nice reaction back to the upside, pushing higher by the end of next week.
What the bears want to see:

Is it over?
Here is my totally balanced and honest take on Bitcoin and the wider market, including my invalidations for the bull market.
Right now Bitcoin is HTF bullish. That's not an opinion, it's a fact.
All key levels holding, bull trend still intact.
But we are getting close to reaching HTF invalidation levels that have implications to be aware of.
And this is the nature of the Crypto market... it will push all the way as close to invalidation as it can, only to reverse at the last moment and run it back up. Until it doesn't...
It is one of the main reasons why this game is so hard.
So he

The biggest and smartest BTC whales continue to load up on longs.
A pattern that has repeated throughout the entire run.
And now the RSI is reaching overbought levels.
The reversal is loading soon here, but you would not believe it.
Bears are extremely arrogant and cocky right now.
Remember, it is very easy to be bearish after the price has been going down for ages, and it is very easy to be bullish when the price has been going up for ages.
I am personally really looking forward to the cope when we move higher and most of the arrogant bears go into hibernation because they aren't man enough

It's absolutely wild.
We have everyone screaming bear market and how over it is...
And how you should be looking to exit all your positions on the next dead cat bounce before 4 years of death.
When TOTAL3/ETH is in the EXACT same position it was in right before the 2021 period of Altcoin outperformance.
The divergence between the data and the sentiment has never been wider, especially for altcoins.
The 1W RSI was only ever as oversold as it just was back in 2021.
Alts are picking up strength against ETH and BTC, not losing it.
This data I am sharing today does not signify the end of the Crypto

How can altcoins have topped if they have never pumped?
OTHERS has been in a downtrend against Bitcoin since the end of 2021.
4 years now.
And each previous cycle, OTHERS has broken its downtrend against BTC and finished with a period of outperformance.
This is cycle will end up being no different, it is simply prolonged, and as I have covered multiple times...
This is because of the macro and business cycle.
A 4 year arbitrary number cycle has never been the main factor, it is only the liquidity that matters.
And liquidity, as it always has done, is cycled through the market, which is why alt

It just does not add up or make any logical sense.
IF we have topped... it will be the most underwhelming, lowest volatility and weakest relative strength against all other assets we have ever seen.
This is the 2025 year to date performance(highs) of all major assets as well as BTC.
SPX - 19%
NDQ - 25%
BTC - 33%
GOLD - 66%
So what you're telling me is that SPX, which is worth $60tn(30x larger than BTC), has pumped only 15% less than BTC, which is worth $2tn?
During its final year of its bull market which is ALWAYS the most volatile and most expansive?
And GOLD, worth $30tn(15x larger than BTC)