The bull market has just begun! When will BTC reach 100,000? Let's hear what 11 experts and Satoshi have to say.

Since Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential election on November 5th, the price of BTC has reached a new all-time high in the past week. According to market data, on the night of the election, the price of BTC surpassed the previous record high of $73,730. At the time of writing, the BTC trading price fluctuates between $88,000 and $89,000, reaching a peak of $90,036.17 at one point during the day.

How long can the post-election BTC surge continue, given the Favourable Information of Trump's election, the expectation of sovereign countries following the US to establish a strategic reserve of BTC, and the loose Intrerest Rate?

"Don't fight the trend," Bernstein analysts told clients in a report. "Welcome to the encryption currency bull market - buy everything you can."

Bernstein and Standard Chartered Bank expect the BTC price target to reach $200,000 by the end of next year, but first, how long will it take for BTC to break $100,000?

Polymarket users have placed bets on whether this goal will be achieved by the end of 2024, and the total trading volume as of today has exceeded $3 million, with a betting probability of 59%.

Douro Labs CEO Michael Cahill told The Block: "It's not a question of whether BTC will reach $100,000, but a matter of time. In my view, this may happen as early as the first quarter of 2025. Due to the current overall economic environment being favorable to digital assets, we are seeing unprecedented momentum."

Fear, or not fear?

According to Cahill, the Rebound after the election is not just fear of missing out, but he said that the current price is not only speculation driven by retail investors like in 2017.

He said, "The market finally recognizes BTC as a legitimate asset, a tool for hedging inflationary pressure. Today, we see a structural change in investors' views on BTC, with a six-digit price foundation beginning to be established. This rebound may consolidate BTC's position as the cornerstone of the global financial system."

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said that since breaking through $74,000, BTC has been waiting for the next trigger point before reaching $100,000, and he said BTC may 'easily' reach this level by the end of the year.

Hougan said, 'Everyone is following the new BTC buyers. This is very true, but another reason for this rebound is that people have stopped dumping. Long-term holders are no longer willing to sell BTC at the current price, and shorts also seem unwilling to block this fast-moving train.'

Tides.Network CEO Chandra Duggirala said that it is easy for the price of BTC to reach $100,000 before Thanksgiving, but there are short-term risks.

Duggirala said in an email, 'We haven't seen strong fear of missing out sentiment from wealth managers, while retail investors have just started to follow. Therefore, this trend is still in its infancy. We believe that once it surpasses $100,000, the real fear of missing out will come.'

Split Capital founder and CIO Zaheer Ebtikar expressed the same view.

Ebtikar told The Block: 'Historically, people have also been forced to accept the notion or idea that the trend of BTC does indeed occur when it breaks historical highs, so I think this is a self-fulfilling prophecy, but what I think is more important... Many smarter funds and many native Cryptocurrency holders are seizing the capital that may enter the industry in the future.'

He pointed out that if people hand over their funds to professional asset allocators, this will not happen immediately. Therefore, most fear of missing out will not be realized until December 1st, and January 1st, 2025 seems more realistic.

Ebtikar said, 'I think we are in a very strange window of opportunity, where many agile funds that can quickly mobilize capital are entering the market, before more systemic buying enters the market.'

How to understand Satoshi's money?

Alexander Blume, CEO of Two Prime, said that the price of BTC could "no doubt" reach $100,000 by the end of the year.

"The implied Volatility of BTC is 55," Blume said, "although it's a bit high, I expect it to reach higher levels before reaching the market peak. This, along with the recently re-emerged lending market, tells me that there is still some room for growth in the market."

According to CF Benchmarks data, traders seem to be rushing to buy BTC call options with a strike price of $100,000. The 30-day constant maturity 25 delta skew has now exceeded the 5 vol threshold (Note: 5 vol is an empirical value, and when the skew exceeds this threshold, it is generally considered that the market's expectation of an increase is very strong), the company said that this is close to the high point so far this year, indicating a significant increase in demand for upside exposure.

In addition, Thomas Erdösi, the product manager of CF Benchmarks, said in a statement that for call options with high strike prices in the futures, such as 5D options with strike prices exceeding $100,000, the implied volatility is significantly higher. This indicates that traders are preparing for a further breakthrough of the six-figure mark.

Wintermute Data shows that on December 27th, the outstanding contracts for Close Position showed an increased demand for bullish options with a strike price of $100,000, and the notional amount will reach $850 billion.

By the end of the first quarter next year, the contract on March 28th shows an increase in demand with a strike price between $100,000 and $120,000. The Ethercoin/BTCSpot exchange rate has risen 11% in the past week, making it the third largest increase this year.

Wintermute OTC trader Jake Ostrovskis said, "As mentioned throughout 2024, this spread has been diminishing with each opportunity. The common perception is that 'this time is different,' which is a risky position as the market has already softened since Friday's high point."

Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoffrey Kendrick said that before November 29, the $90,000 level was "easily achievable," and it is expected to reach $100,000 on December 27, and it is expected to reach $125,000 by the end of the year. He emphasized that December 10 is an important date to follow, as the Microsoft board will vote on whether to invest in BTC.

In an email to clients on November 10, Kendrick wrote, '...After the 2016 election, many of Trump's transactions peaked around January 20, before and after the inauguration ceremony, so if BTC cannot reach 125,000 by December 31, I think it will reach it before January 20.'

Nascent portfolio strategist Matt Klein said in an interview with The Block: 'It will reach $100,000 by the latest before the inauguration ceremony of (Trump). The only question is whether the Lummis bill is worth serious consideration. If the Lummis bill becomes law, there will be no upper limit to the increase'.

Earlier this year, Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo) introduced a bill requesting the US Treasury to purchase 1 million BTC within five years to address the depreciation of the US dollar. She also introduced a Stable Coin bill in April.

With anti-encryption figures like Senator Sherrod Brown losing in the election, the US Congress will welcome the most pro-encryption lineup in history. Coupled with Trump's economic policies possibly devaluing the US dollar, Arthur Hayes believes BTC will "fly higher".

Hayes said, 'With the decreasing free circulation supply of BTC, the largest fiat currencies in history will seek a safe haven, not only Americans, but also investors from around the world, including China, Japan, and Western Europe, will invest in BTC... This is the reason why BTC is heading towards 1 million US dollars, because the price is determined marginally. Buy and hold.'

【Disclaimer】Trading carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Trading based on this is at your own risk.

This article is authorized for reprint from: 'TechFlow'

Original author: The Block

"The bull market has just begun! When will BTC reach 100,000? Let's see what 11 experts and smart money say." This article was first published in 'encryption city'