Bitcoin Miner Facing 20% Cost Discount, On-Chain Indicators Suggest Rebound Is Imminent

The current Bitcoin market is experiencing structural pressure, with the impact on miners being particularly significant. According to the latest on-chain data, BTC price is fluctuating around $70,840, which is 20–25% below the average production cost for miners, estimated at $89,000–$91,000. This means most miners are operating at a loss at current prices, and the entire network faces unprecedented cost pressures.

The Entity-Adjusted NUPL indicator has approached 0.2, signaling that the market is entering a historically extreme panic zone. In contrast, when Bitcoin approached $110,000, this indicator hovered around 0.6. Ongoing selling pressure continues to compress unrealized profits across the network, posing a direct threat to miners’ cash flow.

On-Chain Liquidity Shift: The First Signal of Miner Stress Release

Although miners are still under cost pressure, on-chain liquidity trends suggest a potential turning point. The Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) recently formed a golden cross above the 90-day moving average, a signal that closely aligns with previous historical cycles observed by CryptoQuant. Similar golden crosses in 2016, 2019, and early 2023 all occurred during the early accumulation phases of those cycles.

Notably, the current IFP shift happened as Bitcoin retreated from the distribution phase near $100,000. This divergence may indicate that liquidity is moving away from exchanges and back into the hands of potential buyers, especially large institutions seeking to accumulate at lower prices. This signals that the market may be preparing for the next upward cycle.

Stablecoin Supply Rebound Indicates Capital Re-Entry

From a capital flow perspective, the stablecoin ecosystem shows early signs of accumulation. As of the report, the total stablecoin market cap stands at $312.95 billion, up 0.87% week-over-week and 3.73% month-over-month. More notably, USDC supply has surged 9.34% over the past 30 days, indicating that capital available for trading is gradually returning to the market.

Meanwhile, OTC account balances continue to decline, reflecting that large institutions are withdrawing Bitcoin from OTC channels for long-term holding. This movement interacts positively with the easing pressure on miners—reduced OTC outflows and increased institutional accumulation help alleviate selling pressure on miners.

Network hashrate fluctuates between 980–1,150 EH/s, indicating cautious behavior among miners facing cost pressures. Hashprice has been suppressed to $30–$32 per PH/s/day, meaning that aside from the most efficient miners, most operators are near breakeven. However, some miners are exploring diversification into AI data center infrastructure, which helps spread risk beyond traditional mining and offset some revenue losses.

The Emergence of a Balance Point and Subsequent Risks

Bitcoin is currently trading near a realized price of $67,900, representing a fragile equilibrium. The golden cross in IFP reinforces the accumulation narrative, but tightening macro credit conditions could trigger miner liquidations again, prolonging this balance adjustment.

Overall, Bitcoin is at a critical turning point—cost pressures on miners intersect with emerging capital inflow signals. On-chain indicators suggest a potential cycle shift, but whether a sustained rebound will materialize depends on miners’ subsequent actions and the true direction of macro funds.