Recently, many people have mistaken the market's sideways movement for the main players shaking out positions, but there is a larger macro factor behind it that deserves attention. The debt refinancing pressure faced by the U.S. Treasury could become a variable in the market in the second half of this year.

The core issue lies here: the U.S. currently needs to handle a maturing debt of $12 trillion, but when these bonds were issued, the interest rates were close to zero. Now, to roll over this debt, interest rates are already high. To give an intuitive example—if you took out a $1 million mortgage at a 3% interest rate years ago, refinancing now at an 8% rate would double your monthly payments, and the pressure is obvious. With the $12 trillion volume, the rising financing costs will be a huge expense.

The traditional finance chessboard and the crypto market are actually interconnected. What does an increase in U.S. debt financing demand mean? It will squeeze the operational space of institutional investors and the Federal Reserve, and the incremental funds that might have flowed into crypto assets could instead be attracted to fill the U.S. debt demand. This is directly reflected in market liquidity—when traditional finance needs more liquidity to handle debt issues, the share of the crypto market can only shrink.

This is not alarmist talk. Historically, every round of U.S. debt financing pressure has been accompanied by market risk events. Around the 2026 timeframe, this pressure window is indeed worth investors paying more attention to in terms of fundamental changes.