#委内瑞拉 Event, what does it mean for the US risk markets?

The US directly arrested President Maduro and his wife in Venezuela, and this incident has quickly fermented worldwide. The reactions from China and Russia have been widely observed. Here, we won't delve into international geopolitics, but focus on one thing:
👉 Is this event truly negative for US risk assets?
1. Trump’s Political Risk: The Biggest Variable
Based on current public information, Trump not only acknowledged the arrest operation but also further stated—
The US will "temporarily operate in Venezuela" until a political transition is completed.
This step is very critical.
The narrative has shifted from
"a military/intelligence operation"
to
"regime change + substantive oversight"
This can easily trigger domestic debates in the US about presidential authority boundaries, war powers, and legitimacy.
👉 This represents the greatest political risk for Trump himself, rather than market panic.
2. Oil: Not necessarily bullish, and may even pressure oil prices
Many people's first reaction is:
Middle East + Latin America → Oil prices rise → Inflation increases
But the reality might be quite the opposite.
The US has already imposed substantial sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers in December.
Venezuela’s oil exports have been suppressed for a month.
This operation did not create new surprises on the supply side.
More importantly, Trump’s statement:
👉 The US will take over Venezuela’s oil
This might be interpreted by the market as:
Supply being more controllable
Geopolitical risk premiums decreasing
This is not necessarily bullish for oil prices, and could even be bearish.
👉 For US inflation, this might actually be good news.
3. Why choose the weekend? It’s a “risk management” move
From a market perspective, the timing is very “Trump style”:
The action took place over the weekend,
Giving the market 48 hours to digest the risk.
By Monday, the US stock market faces a “fait accompli.”
The person has been arrested; the market’s next assessment is:
Will the situation escalate further?
Currently, this action instead signals:
👉 The US still holds overwhelming advantages in military, intelligence, and enforcement capabilities.
This could be a potential positive factor for the defense sector.
Ultimately, the key will be the US stock market’s initial reaction on Monday.
Returning to Bitcoin: The market’s response is very “calm.”
From on-chain data and price behavior, it largely aligns with yesterday’s expectations.
BTC maintained slight fluctuations over the weekend,
Price stayed above $90,000,
No panic sell-offs typical of safe-haven reactions.
The key points are:
👉 The real variables remain Monday’s US stock market and the secondary interpretation of the Venezuela event.
What does the on-chain structure look like?
Weekend turnover rate decreased,
Mainly short-term profit-taking.
Early holders and trapped chips reacted little.
There were no abnormal fluctuations during US trading hours.
This indicates one thing:
👉 Ordinary crypto investors do not see this event as a “systemic risk.”
Overall sentiment remains stable.
In summary:
This is an event of political risk > market risk.
It may not be bad for oil prices and inflation.
#BTC The market’s reaction shows:
Investors are more concerned about whether things will spiral out of control next, rather than what has already happened.
In the coming week, it won’t be peaceful, but it’s not as dangerous as many think.