Regarding crude oil trends, a few recent variables need to be clarified.

The core OPEC+ oil-producing countries announced they will maintain production levels from February to March 2026, temporarily holding off on increasing output. This signals a tight supply side. Meanwhile, transportation risks in the Red Sea haven't eased, with rerouting costs for oil tankers rising, which has supported oil prices with a geopolitical premium. Another detail is China's strategic reserve replenishment; in November 2025, imports reached 12.13 million barrels per day, a new high in recent years, effectively providing a support level at the bottom.

However, it’s important to note that the International Energy Agency forecasts a global crude oil surplus of 3.8 to 4.09 million barrels per day in 2026. This figure is critical—it indicates that, in the long term, supply will outpace demand. But in the short term, geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production stabilization decisions create hedges, so the surplus outlook will mainly manifest over the longer term. Currently, the market remains event-driven, with volatility depending on trading volume, which has a more noticeable impact on crude oil than on precious metals.

**Operational levels**:

The 60.4 level is a good entry point. It aligns with the lower boundary support of the upward channel and coincides with the 20-day moving average (MA20), providing dual support. During previous pullbacks, trading volume shrank to below 30% of recent averages, then quickly rebounded with increased volume, confirming the validity of the support through volume-price confirmation. This trend aligns with geopolitical-driven logic, making entry safer than relying solely on moving averages.

Add positions at 59.5. Here, the 60-day moving average (MA60) and the core support zone of previous trading congestion coincide, also about one point below the midline of the upward channel, forming a three-layer support of "moving average + congestion zone + channel." If the price pulls back to this level, the KDJ indicator will form a second bottom and then a golden cross, representing a healthy trend correction and a good opportunity for adding positions. Shrinking volume can confirm the support’s validity.

For stop-loss, watch 59.0. This is the critical level for breaking the lower boundary of the upward channel and also the lower edge of the recent consolidation zone. If it effectively breaks below this, the channel trend will be invalidated, and the death cross risk for MA60 and MA120 increases, leading to a complete collapse of the short-term upward structure. Setting a stop-loss here can avoid deep losses from trend reversals.

The upward target is 61.8-62.3.

The above is just my personal analysis approach.