Recently, discussions about various consumption subsidies have been very popular. Many people see that the new policies cover three major categories: digital products, home appliances, and automobiles, and their first reaction is to make a move. But as someone who has been immersed in the crypto market for many years and has seen countless "benefit trap" schemes, I need to give everyone a warning—there are hidden tricks in this wave of operations that are more sophisticated than some project pump-and-dump tactics.

Let's look at two more obvious issues first. Regarding new energy vehicles, the purchase tax will be fully exempted until 2025, saving up to 30,000 yuan, but in 2026, it will be cut in half to 15,000 yuan. For consumers who do not have an old car to trade in and are buying a new one directly, this effectively forces them to pay an extra 15,000 yuan—adding a hidden 5% cost on a 300,000 yuan car. This tactic is somewhat similar to sudden policy changes in the crypto market—before the market can react, the good news turns into bad news.

The digital products side is even more covert. Previously, when subsidies were available, new devices hardly saw any price drops; without subsidies, there were discounts of several hundred yuan through promotional activities. Now, with subsidies, consumers can only pay the official website price, and the original discount space has been swallowed by merchants. For models under 6,000 yuan, choosing the national subsidy results in profits directly going to retail channels. This kind of harvesting method is even more hidden than exchange fees—it appears to subsidize consumers, but in reality, it is a disguised price increase.

From a market analysis perspective, these policies are essentially short-term stimulative tools. The effect of stimulation is often very short-lived. Once subsidies gradually phase out or shrink, consumers will have to accept a new pricing system. Those who miss the first wave are usually the ones with the highest costs. This logic is similar to certain crypto project fundraising stages—early participants profit, while latecomers face the risk of following the trend. Think carefully about this before deciding whether to make a move; it’s much more rational than blindly rushing in.