The market is chaotic but always operates along the path of least resistance; there's no need to guess, just follow, and time will provide you with the answers.

Hello everyone, I am the trader Gege. The big coin has completely broken down, so according to the previous bull-bear thinking, it can be considered that the bear has fully arrived. Today's article has two main points: first, to estimate the recent trends and the prices that need to be noted, and second, to predict the bear bottom. Long-term and spot players can refer to this, of course, the premise is that your account is still alive, after all, this round of decline has already liquidated many bulls. Especially from November 11, the gradual decline from the high point of around 107000 to the final spike of around 80600, the gradual decline is scarier than a violent plunge, it not only tortures your account but also your mindset.

Some say this bull market is different because of ETFs, and the participation of large institutions will break the historical cycle. Others say that even if we enter a bear market this time, it will be different because of the existence of ETFs, and institutions and long-term believers will support the market, preventing deep declines. However, the simplest purpose of institutions entering the market is the same as yours and mine: to make profits. So perhaps the buying pressure will become the selling pressure, and the biggest bulls may also be the biggest bears. Therefore, don't overly trust these notions; just focus on your own small piece of land.

To get back on track, let's first estimate the recent trend. The monthly candlestick shows a large bearish candle, and there are still 6 days until the close, so it is certainly impossible to turn it into a bullish candle. The key points to watch will be after the close next month; if there is a downward test, it will be a good opportunity to gradually build positions in waves. The specific price will be updated later, but for now, refer to this thought and plant a seed in your mind, waiting for the right time to take action.

The weekly level has experienced a four-week continuous decline, breaking below the MA60 and the ascending trend line. The MACD's double-line death cross has not yet shown an upward turn. There is a high probability that the previous low is not the bottom. Even if there is a short-term rebound, there are two key boundaries above: the 90000-91000 range and the 98000-99000 range. Gege estimates that it will be very difficult to break through the second key boundary in the next 8 weeks. Below, reference the previous low and the low point in April without breaking or slightly breaking, first taking around 80000 with a 1000 USD range. If it breaks down, then consider around 74000; if it doesn't break, buy around the 77000-76000 range. If it breaks down, buy around the 73800-72800 range. The above is the current short-term analysis based on the present market structure, and specific operations can be flexibly adjusted based on subsequent changes in the market.

Regarding the bear market bottom, it is still too early to make predictions. We can simply rely on Fibonacci extension lines to provide two price references, which are actually quite similar to the historical cyclic prices. 63145 and 52362. If needed, you can take a screenshot to save these prices and wait for future market movements to verify. When we truly reach the time point of the bear market bottom, I will also provide my own views and opinions in updated articles. That's all for today.

Suggestions are for reference only. Make sure to manage risk when entering the market, and take control of your profit and stop-loss spaces. Specific strategies should primarily be based on the current market situation; you may consult for advice.

Alright, friends, we will say goodbye until next time. Wishing everyone continued success and smooth sailing in the crypto world! More real-time advice will be sent internally. Today's brief update ends here. For more real-time advice from Auntie Bitcoin, find Gege.

Article / I am the trader Gege, a friend willing to accompany you in making a comeback #BTC #ETH #PI