Why is it so difficult to deal with alts this time? Many old suckers followed the strategy from the last bull run, laying in ambush with a bunch of altcoins, hoping to replicate the myth of tenfold or hundredfold returns. Those so-called "altcoin masters" online shout every day that "alt season is here," but what happened? Instead of waiting for a big pump, they first encountered a 60% big dump, leading to over 20 billion in Get Liquidated across the entire network.

To be honest, if you only focus on the coin circle, you will never understand it. Some say it's the whales shaking out the weak hands? That's just self-comfort; the lost money won't come back just because of a "test."

Think from a different perspective: treat interest rates as the pricing anchor for all risk assets. BTC is equivalent to the leveraged version of Nasdaq, and altcoins are 3 to 10 times the leverage of BTC - with this reasoning, the logic becomes clear.

What is the current issue? The high interest rate environment suppresses risk appetite, and BTC itself can't rise, so how can alts take off? You need to understand that BTC itself is a high-risk asset, even more aggressive than US tech stocks, while alts are like adding several times leverage to BTC. When interest rates are high, the entire chain gets broken.

So the situation is very clear: interest rates have not fallen → BTC's rise is limited → alts continue to bleed.

Have the alts fallen to the right level? I don't think so. Based on historical data, it needs to return to the price level of October 11th last year to truly find the bottom.

The more crucial point is: if BTC can't break new highs and ETH can't hold above 4000, don't expect a comprehensive alt season. At most, there will be some local opportunities in individual sectors rotating, but being fully invested in alts? The probability of losing money is much greater than that of making money.

The reasoning is simple—if even the leading coins like BTC and ETH are not rising, what basis do those small altcoins have to rise? Is it based on faith? Compare the market capitalization of those altcoins with that of the tech giants in the US stock market; which one has more value support?

There are even worse scenarios: if BTC experiences a big dump, the fall of many alts could be 3 to 10 times that of BTC. This stuff is essentially gambling, and one must have the mindset of a gambler.

Investing in altcoins regularly? Isn't that a death wish? With something that can drop 70% at any moment, you will definitely lose if you go all in, but there's a chance to recover if you invest lightly. Because I really don't believe that most people can operate rationally while watching their assets evaporate by 60-70% in a day.

Remember: this round of market is different from the last one, the macro environment has changed, and the strategies must change as well. Don't use an old map to find a new continent.