XRP News Today: Can ETF Net Inflows on the 16th Offset Fed Volatility Risks? It is expected to rise to $2.35 in the short term

Despite market uncertainty caused by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, the XRP spot ETF has demonstrated remarkable ability to attract gold, achieving net inflows for 16 consecutive trading days, with a total size approaching the $1 billion mark, and its recent performance has even surpassed that of Bitcoin spot ETFs. Meanwhile, the advancement of crypto-friendly legislation and the broadening of the institutional base collectively form medium-term support for XRP’s price. Analysts point out that XRP is expected to test $2.35 in the short term if it holds the key psychological support level at $2.35, with medium-term targets looking at the $2.5 to $3 range.

XRP spot ETF inflows are strong, outperforming Bitcoin ETFs

A standout highlight in the recent cryptocurrency market is undoubtedly the consistent net inflows of funds from the XRP spot ETF. As of December 8, the XRP spot ETF in the US market has been favored by funds for 16 consecutive trading days, with a single-day net inflow of $38.04 million on Monday, reversing the slowdown in inflows over the previous four days. Since the product launch, the cumulative net inflow has reached a high of $935.39 million, just one step away from the $1 billion milestone. Among them, the Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) performed particularly well, recording a net inflow of $31.7 million on December 8, the second-highest since its first day of listing.

More iconically, the XRP spot ETF’s market performance has surpassed that of its “big brother” Bitcoin. During the same reporting period, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF market showed a net outflow of $60.4 million. Since November 14, the first day of the Canary XRP ETF’s listing, Bitcoin spot ETFs have accumulated a net outflow of a whopping $1.79 billion, contrasting with the strong demand for XRP spot ETFs. This divergence in the flow of funds could signal a short-term decoupling of XRP from Bitcoin’s movements.

Paul Barron, a well-known crypto journalist, commented, "Crypto curiosities are transforming into crypto investors. XRP’s ETF reached $1 billion in AUM in less than 4 weeks, the fastest pace since Ethereum ETFs. He further noted that as traditional financial institutions like Vanguard Group shift their attitudes to allow brokerage clients to invest in crypto spot ETFs, the investment threshold has shifted from “education” to “channels,” allowing millions of U.S. investors to participate in the market without having to learn complex new systems.

Technical pressure but fundamentals turn, how to lay out key prices?

From a technical analysis perspective, XRP is currently still below the key EMAs, indicating a cautious bias in the market’s short-term sentiment. After a 1.64% increase on December 9, XRP closed at $2.1073 but still failed to reclaim the 50-day (approximately $2.262) vs. 200-day (approximately $2.471) Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is often seen as a bearish signal. However, the technical weakness is being hedged by strong fundamental momentum, and the market structure may be undergoing a fundamental shift.

! XRP Price Prediction

(Source: TradingView)

Currently, traders need to pay close attention to the following key levels: the lower support is the $2 psychological mark, $1.9112, and the November low of $1.8239; The upper resistance is $2.2 first, followed by the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA. A successful break above the $2 support and a break above the 50-day EMA will open room for the price to test $2.35 and even $2.5. A break above the 50-day EMA will be seen as an important signal for the short-term trend to turn from bear to bull.

XRP key technical and fundamental observations

Technical Support Levels:

• $2.0 (psychological threshold)
• $1.9112
• $1.8239 (November low)

Technical Resistance Levels:

• $2.2620 (50-day EMA)
• $2.4710 (200-day EMA)
• $2.35 & $2.5 (medium-term target)

Fundamental Drivers:

• XRP spot ETF daily cash flow
• Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan interest rate decisions
• Legislative progress on the Market Structure Act
• Ripple US bank license application results

Multiple positive factors are superimposed, and XRP has sufficient upward momentum in the medium term

In addition to the funding effect of ETFs, multiple macro and regulatory positive factors are converging to support XRP’s medium-term trajectory. The first is the expected shift in the Fed’s monetary policy. The market’s current expectations for a rate cut in December are high, which had propelled XRP to a high of $2.6972 in October. Although the expected cooling in November led to a pullback in prices, the renewed expectations of rate cuts are once again boosting demand for risk assets as the December FOMC meeting approaches.

At the same time, the regulatory environment is expected to improve. Bipartisan members of the U.S. Senate are discussing the key Market Structure Act, which aims to provide a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset market. Any positive legislative developments could significantly improve market sentiment. In addition, Ripple’s application for a national bank license from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has also attracted much attention, and if approved, it will greatly enhance its compliance operations and institutional credibility.

Another catalyst that cannot be ignored is the commencement of trading on NYSE Arca as an ETF on December 9 by the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund. The fund covers the top 10 cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, SOL, ADA, and more, providing traditional investors with a convenient basket of investment vehicles that are expected to bring incremental capital to the constituent assets.

Market Outlook and Risk Warning: The road to $3 is not an easy road

Taken together, XRP’s short-to-medium-term outlook is optimistic under multiple positives. Strong ETF inflows, potential regulatory breakthroughs, and a possible Fed policy shift collectively form the cornerstone of the price upward movement. Analysts believe that as long as the $2 support holds, the price is expected to challenge $2.35 in the short term and could rise further to $2.5 in the medium term (4-8 weeks). In the longer term, if the above positives continue to ferment, it is not impossible for the price to challenge $3 in 8-12 weeks.

However, the road to higher prices is still fraught with risks. The primary risk comes from the Fed, which could trigger short-term volatility if its policy statement or “dot plot” is more hawkish than market expectations. Second, if the Bank of Japan releases a signal of further interest rate hikes, it may lead to the unwinding of yen carry trades, causing turmoil in global markets. At the regulatory level, if the Market Structure Act is blocked in the Senate or Ripple’s banking license application is denied, it will hurt market confidence.

In addition, whether MSCI will remove digital asset treasury companies from the index and whether there will be large-scale outflows from the XRP spot ETF are also downside risks to be wary of. If these headwinds occur, the XRP price could fall back below $2 and retest the $1.8239 low.

All in all, XRP is at a point in the game between technicals and fundamentals. Although the short-term trend may fluctuate due to the Fed’s decision, the continued entry of institutional funds and the emergence of the dawn of regulation have built a relatively stable support for the medium- and long-term trend. While optimistic, investors should pay close attention to the changes in the above key drivers and manage risks accordingly.