Bitcoin ETF inflows of $129 million are hard to fill the record outflow of $3.5 billion in November, as the market struggles to find a bottom under institutional pressure testing.

Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $129 million on November 25, breaking the trend of continuous outflows this month and providing support for Bitcoin prices around $87,000. Analysts point out that Bitcoin is undergoing the “first real institutional stress test,” with long-term holders accumulating on dips while short-term holders are generally in loss. Although the total outflow in November reached $3.5 billion, nearing historical worst records, selective funds are flowing into alternative token funds such as Ethereum and Solana, indicating that the market is seeking a balance amid macro uncertainty.

ETF Inflows Break the Stalemate: Initial Signals of Market Bottom Formation

After experiencing several weeks of capital outflow, Bitcoin spot ETF welcomed a net inflow of $129 million on November 25, injecting much-needed liquidity into the market. This data comes from The Block's data dashboard, showing that despite an overall capital outflow of $3.5 billion in November, the single-day positive inflow still helped Bitcoin form initial support in the $84,000 to $90,000 range. Concurrently, the Ethereum fund received an inflow of $79 million, while the Solana fund attracted $58 million, indicating that investors are making selective allocations rather than a complete withdrawal from the crypto market. This pattern of capital rotation reflects that institutional investors are more inclined to diversify risks in a volatile environment rather than completely abandon the digital asset class.

Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, pointed out that these inflows provided “meaningful buying pressure for the first time in several days,” helping Bitcoin maintain its position in a key support area. He added, “The flow of funds has shifted to a supportive nature, but it has not yet reached a decisive level.” On-chain data also corroborates this view, with about one-third of the Bitcoin supply still in a state of loss, but long-term holders and institutions continue to accumulate selectively, while recent sellers mainly come from the short-term holder group. From a technical analysis perspective, whether Bitcoin can regain the $92,000 level will be key to the next phase of its trend; if it can break through this resistance level, it will confirm the market recovery trend.

The changes in market structure are also worth noting. Coinbase UK CEO Keith Grose observed that European institutions are adopting a more structured and regulated approach to allocating digital assets. He shared, “We are seeing clearer regulatory frameworks, more robust infrastructure, and early examples of central banks conducting controlled pilot projects.” For instance, the Czech National Bank recently decided to test a small-scale, isolated digital asset portfolio, indicating that even during periods of market volatility, institutional-level experiments are still accelerating. This foundational construction lays a solid groundwork for the long-term adoption of digital assets.

Key Data Overview of Bitcoin ETF

Net inflow for the day: $129 million (November 25)

Bitcoin price range: 84000-90000 USD

Total outflow in November: 3.5 billion USD

Worst month in history: $3.6 billion outflow in February 2025

Ethereum fund inflow: 79 million USD

Solana fund inflow: 58 million USD

Key resistance level: $92,000

Institutional Stress Test: A Touchstone for Market Maturity

According to Gabe Selby, director of research at CF Benchmarks, Bitcoin is undergoing its “first real institutional stress test.” The core of this concept is that while the ETF infrastructure broadens market access, it also accelerates the price discovery process during downturns. Selby emphasized, “November 2025 is becoming the worst month for ETF fund flows, but we believe this is more about profit-taking than panic selling.” The data he provided shows that Bitcoin rose from around $60,000 last November to nearly $126,000 earlier this year, and it is normal for some investors to choose to exit, while large institutions are actually engaging in reverse operations.

Another dimension of the stress test is reflected in the differentiation of holder behavior. On-chain analysis indicates that long-term holders (addresses holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days) are steadily increasing their positions at the current price level, while short-term holders (those holding for less than 155 days) have become net sellers. This phenomenon of differentiation is also commonly seen at turning points in traditional financial markets, suggesting that experienced investors view the current adjustment as a layout opportunity. Selby further pointed out that although Bitcoin is far below the historical trend for November, the overall market pattern still depends on three major catalysts: the clarification of the Federal Reserve's policy in December, the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown crisis, and the capital allocation cycle after the tax season.

Historical data provides important references for current stress tests. In February 2025, Bitcoin ETF experienced an outflow of $3.5 billion, but three months later Bitcoin reached a new all-time high. This cyclical pattern shows that institutional investors have not disappeared but are waiting for the right entry point. Selby explained: “Institutions are not going to disappear; they are just waiting. They are just waiting for the right entry point.” The current market structure's similarity to early 2025 provides important context for understanding this round of adjustment. From a broader perspective, this stress test is actually a necessary path for Bitcoin's transition from a fringe asset to a mainstream investment category.

Macroeconomic Environment and Risk Factors: The Tug of War Between Bulls and Bears

The current cryptocurrency market is facing a complex macro environment, with multiple economic data points being released in a short period, increasing market uncertainty. The Producer Price Index (PPI) met expectations, but retail sales, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and unemployment claims data will be released within a 48-hour window, which may significantly swing interest rate expectations. Misir noted: “Inflation data has neither forced the Federal Reserve to rush to cut rates nor required it to maintain rigidity. The market must price in the possibility of a two-way outcome this week.” This uncertainty is magnified against the backdrop of thin holiday liquidity, where the release of conventional data may lead to an overshooting reaction in the market.

In terms of risk triggers, analysts are focusing on three potential threats. First, if ETF fund flows turn negative again, it could threaten the lower end of the $84,000 support range. Second, a surge in exchange inflows or an accelerated distribution by long-term holders could weaken the fragile foundation forming around the $85,000 midpoint. Third, the short-term correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks hit a historic high this month, suggesting that volatility in traditional markets like Nasdaq may spill over into the crypto space. LVRG Research Director Nick Ruck points out that high-risk trades, from AI stocks to meme stocks, are all declining in sync, and the S&P 500 is experiencing its worst month since March, making this linkage effect hard to ignore.

Citigroup's quantitative analysis shows a clear correlation between Bitcoin ETF fund flows and prices. For every $1 billion that flows out, the price of Bitcoin drops by about 3.4%, and vice versa. Analyst Alex Saunders recently set a year-end bearish target of $82,000, assuming zero fund inflows. However, in reality, billions have already been withdrawn from the ETF queue, suggesting further downside potential. Bloomberg Intelligence's senior ETF analyst Rebecca Sin added, “As the market continues to decline and volatility increases, we may see more outflows, especially considering gold's current trading position.” She also noted that some of the outflows may come from hedge funds unwinding basis trades, a strategy that profits from the price difference between the spot and futures markets.

Evolution of Market Structure: Transition from Frenzy to Rationality

Since the launch of Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, it has become synonymous with the sentiment of the crypto market, reshaping the way funds flow in and out of asset classes. They also form a self-reinforcing feedback loop: inflows of funds tend to accelerate during price increases, while outflows amplify the decline during price drops. This mechanism was particularly evident during the bull market in early 2025, where several weeks of continuous inflows drove Bitcoin to a new all-time high. However, the current market is in a transition phase from euphoria to rationality, with investors placing greater emphasis on the fundamental principles of risk management and asset allocation.

Another sign of the transformation in market structure is the diversification of capital flows. Despite significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum and Solana funds continue to attract capital, indicating that investors are becoming more discerning in differentiating the value propositions of various blockchain projects. Raphael Thuin, Head of Capital Markets Strategy at Tikeh Capital, believes that the narrative shift surrounding the potentially overvalued technology and artificial intelligence has created market tension, affecting more speculative areas such as robotics, quantum computing, and digital assets. He added, “In such an environment, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin funds can serve as an effective indicator of broader market risk sentiment.”

From a regulatory framework perspective, regions like Europe are establishing clearer rules for digital assets, providing certainty for institutional participation. A case shared by Coinbase's UK CEO indicates that central bank-level institutions are beginning to test digital asset allocations on a small scale, and this gradual adoption is integrating with the traditional financial system. Although these developments are still in the early stages, they lay the groundwork for the long-term legitimacy of digital assets as an asset class. The market is undergoing a shift from price speculation to the discovery of practical value, a process that, while painful, is crucial for the healthy development of the ecosystem.

When ETF funds flow back from frenzy to rationality, and long-term holders hold their ground amidst volatility, the market is silently completing a natural selection process. Historical data shows that the darkest moments often nurture the seeds of a new dawn—just as the historical highs that followed the major outflow in February 2025. In the current intertwining effects of macro fog and institutional rebalancing, what investors need is not only short-term price predictions but also a firm belief in the long-term value curve of blockchain technology. In the coming weeks, as the Federal Reserve's policies become clearer and seasonal factors fade, the results of this stress test may define the market landscape for 2026.