Michael Saylor hints at Strategy buying more Bitcoin, as the market waits for institutional buying signals.

On November 14, 2025, MicroStrategy's executive chairman Michael Saylor posted on social media about an “important week,” accompanied by a Holdings chart that showed the company holds approximately 641,692 Bitcoins, valued at over $61 billion, sparking market expectations for a new round of Bitcoin purchases to be announced by Strategy.

Previously, Saylor had hinted at the company's buying plans a day in advance multiple times. This signal appeared when Bitcoin dropped below $100,000 and stabilized in the $95,000 range. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley warned simultaneously that investors cashing out too early might disrupt Bitcoin's traditional halving cycle pattern, triggering deep reflections in the market about the reshaping of cycles.

Saylor's Hints and Market Reaction

The holdings chart released by Michael Saylor shows that the Strategy has accumulated approximately 641,692 Bitcoins, with an average cost of about $74,000. Based on the current price, the unrealized profit amounts to billions of dollars. This chart immediately triggered strong reactions from traders and analysts, with CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn sharing the on-chain accumulation chart, suggesting that an announcement regarding the Strategy's purchases may be imminent.

The historical pattern supports this expectation. Saylor has repeatedly signaled through social media 24 hours before formal announcements, often triggering short-term market rebounds. In December 2024, Bitcoin rose 12% in the following week after a similar hint; the hint in March 2025 pushed the price up by 8%. Investors view such purchases as endorsements of major cryptocurrencies by institutions, and particularly during price corrections, these signals have additional psychological support.

Strategy Bitcoin Holdings Key Data

Holdings: Approximately 641,692 Bitcoins

Holdings value: over 61 billion USD (at current price)

Average cost: approximately $74,000

Unrealized profits: hundreds of billions of dollars

Holdings ranking: The world's largest corporate Bitcoin holders

Historical pattern: suggests purchases are often announced within the next 24 hours.

Current environment: Bitcoin is trading in the $95,000 range.

On-chain data confirms accumulation trends

On-chain analysis has strengthened the credibility of Saylor's suggestion. Bitcoin network data shows that in the past two weeks, the group of addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins has increased their holdings by about 42,000 Bitcoins, worth approximately $4 billion. Meanwhile, the exchange Bitcoin balance has decreased by 85,000 Bitcoins, dropping to 2.3 million, the lowest level since 2021, indicating that the accumulation trend is still ongoing.

The purchasing model of Strategy has unique characteristics. The company typically raises funds through the issuance of convertible notes and then systematically purchases Bitcoin in the market. This operation creates structural demand, contrasting with the random purchases of other institutions. In terms of time distribution, Strategy tends to accelerate purchases during price adjustments. In the second quarter of 2025, when Bitcoin fell from $105,000 to $80,000, the company increased its holdings by approximately 42,000 Bitcoins.

On-chain metrics provide additional confidence. The realized price of Bitcoin (the average price of all Bitcoin's last movements) is currently around $85,000, which means the current price is above the cost basis of most holders. At the same time, the rate of supply reduction among long-term holders is slowing down, indicating that steadfast believers are holding rather than selling, providing stability to the market.

Bitcoin Cycle Theory Faces Challenges

Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, recently issued an important warning, indicating that the traditional four-year cycle pattern of Bitcoin may be breaking down. Many investors expect 2026 to be a down year, but Horsley believes this expectation could lead to selling being brought forward to 2025, fundamentally altering the familiar halving-driven cycle.

The historical pattern is indeed under pressure. Bitcoin's performance in 2025 did not follow the explosive trends seen after previous halvings. After the halving in April 2024, the price increased by about 150% within 12 months, significantly lower than the 450% increase after the 2017 halving and the 300% increase after the 2021 halving. This difference may reflect an increase in market maturity or changes in dynamics due to institutional participation.

Technical analysis provides mixed signals. The weekly chart shows that Bitcoin is still within the upward channel that began in early 2024, but momentum indicators show weakening buying pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen back from the overbought territory but remains above the neutral level of 50, indicating that the trend is intact but the strength is diminishing. Key support is in the $90,000-$92,000 area; if broken, it may test the $78,000-$82,000 range.

Corporate Bitcoin Holdings Trend Analysis

The accumulation of Bitcoin by Strategy is part of a broader corporate trend. According to data from bitcointreasuries.net, publicly traded companies currently hold approximately 1,850,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 8.8% of the total supply. Other significant holders include Tesla (approximately 12,000), Block (approximately 8,000), and Coinbase (approximately 5,000).

The logic behind companies adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset is based on multiple factors: hedging against inflation, asset diversification, and technological belief. Tesla disclosed in its Q3 2025 financial report that its unrealized gains from Bitcoin holdings have exceeded $1.5 billion, proving the financial viability of this strategy. At the same time, more companies are starting to indirectly allocate through ETFs, such as Harvard University's endowment fund recently disclosing holdings of $442.9 million in IBIT shares.

The increase in regulatory clarity is driving this trend. The cryptocurrency accounting standards released by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) in 2024 allow companies to report their Holdings at fair value, reducing profit volatility. At the same time, the EU's MiCA regulations provide legal certainty for businesses holding cryptocurrency, lowering compliance risks.

Improvement of Institutional Infrastructure

The infrastructure for institutional participation in Bitcoin is rapidly maturing. Custody solutions have evolved from simple cold storage to comprehensive services, including staking, lending, and tax reporting. Companies such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Coinbase offer institutional-grade custody with 100% insurance coverage to meet the needs of large investors.

The execution of trades has also significantly improved. Large trading platforms like FalconX and Paradigm handle institutional-sized Bitcoin transactions with minimal impact on the market. The futures and options markets have enough depth to accommodate billions of dollars in holdings, while spot ETFs provide a familiar exposure method for traditional markets.

These developments have lowered the entry barriers for institutions. According to a survey by Morgan Stanley's digital assets division, currently 72% of institutional investors have allocated or plan to allocate cryptocurrencies, a significant increase from 45% in 2023. It is expected that by 2026, the proportion of institutions holding Bitcoin will rise from the current 12% to 20%, creating an additional $400 billion in demand.

Investment Strategy and Cycle Positioning

In the face of potential cyclical changes, investors need to adjust their strategies. If Horsley's warning proves true, the traditional “buy after the halving year” strategy may fail. It is recommended to adopt a value-based framework, increasing Holdings when Bitcoin is trading below its realized price and reducing Holdings when it is extremely overvalued.

For short-term traders, Saylor's hints create event-driven opportunities. Historical data shows that after the announcement of a Strategy purchase, Bitcoin rises an average of 3.5% within 24 hours, but this effect diminishes over time. A more sustainable strategy is to focus on on-chain indicators, such as net exchange flows and long-term holder behavior, which provide more reliable signals of market conditions.

Asset allocation should remain balanced. It is recommended to keep Bitcoin allocation within 15%-25% of the portfolio, with 5%-10% held in spot, and the remainder exposed through ETFs, mining stocks, or derivatives. At the same time, maintain sufficient cash reserves to increase holdings in the event of further declines. It is important to avoid excessive leverage, ensuring the ability to withstand a 30%-40% drop without triggering a forced liquidation.

Market Outlook

As Michael Saylor raises the flag for Bitcoin once again, and traditional cycle theories face challenges, we are at a pivotal moment in the evolution of the cryptocurrency market. The continuous accumulation by Strategy not only represents the belief of a single company but is also a microcosm of the institutionalization of the entire digital asset class. The value proposition of Bitcoin is shifting from being merely a speculative asset to a true store of value, and the depth and durability of this transition will determine the shape of the next cycle. In today's arena of institutional funds and traditional retail competition, the only certainty is that the story of Bitcoin is far from over; it has merely entered a new chapter.