This Week's Outlook: BTC Falls Below 94,000, AI "Judgment Day" and Macro "Liquidation Day" Pressing Down.

Written by: Oliver, Mars Finance

Introduction: The new week starts with the familiar “Monday Red.” Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $94,000 this morning, and Ethereum (ETH) briefly dropped below the $3,000 mark. Compared to the general decline of altcoins, this seems more like a “panic-driven precaution.”

This week's market theme is not “seeking narratives” but rather “facing judgment.” The two main pillars of global high-risk appetite funds (including cryptocurrencies) - the “narrative bubble” of AI and the “rate cut expectations” of the Federal Reserve - will face a reality check this Wednesday.

Key Point One: AI's “Narrative Judgment Day” - NVIDIA Earnings Report (After Wednesday's Market Close)

Beijing time, November 20, early morning: NVIDIA released its third quarter financial report for fiscal year 2025.

For the crypto market, Nvidia's significance goes far beyond being just a tech company. It is the absolute core of the global “AI narrative” and the strongest competitor in the battle for scarce liquidity and risk appetite against the crypto market. Therefore, this financial report represents a “zero-sum game.”

Three major market scenario speculations:

Scenario 1: Frenzy Continues (Strongly Exceeds Expectations)

Performance: Revenue and guidance far exceeded Wall Street's high expectations (revenue of $54.8 billion), and Jensen Huang signaled that “capacity is still severely insufficient” and “orders are booked until the following year.”

Impact on the crypto market: Short-term bearish. This will prove the AI narrative of “power consolidation,” and the world's most greedy funds will continue to flow into the AI track, leading the crypto market (especially altcoins) to face a serious “blood-sucking effect.”

Scenario Two: Bubble Peaks (In line with or below expectations)

Performance: Achievements meet expectations, but guidance for the next quarter is “merely in line with expectations” or “somewhat weak,” acknowledging intensified competition or a slowdown in demand.

Impact on the crypto market: Short-term bullish. This will be the “first real shake-up” of the AI narrative. Huge amounts of capital will begin to flow out of the AI sector, seeking the “next high-growth narrative.” The crypto market (especially AI-related sectors and DePIN) is expected to absorb this portion of “escaping” capital.

Scenario 3: Total Collapse (Severe Miss)

Performance: Both results and guidance failed, proving that the short-term investment in AI has far exceeded the actual output.

Impact on the cryptocurrency market: Significant short-term bearish sentiment. As a weighted stock in the Nasdaq 100 index, Nvidia's collapse will trigger a “Davis Double Kill” for the entire tech sector. Cryptocurrencies, as high-beta “shadow tech stocks,” will inevitably be sold off alongside U.S. stocks.

Key Point Two: The Macroeconomic “Clearing Moment” - Minutes and Data (Wednesday)

Beijing time, November 20: The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the October FOMC meeting.

Beijing time, November 20: The U.S. Department of Labor released the September non-farm payroll report.

After experiencing a “data vacuum period” due to the government shutdown, this week's macro shocks will be “doubled” and “delayed.”

1. Federal Reserve Minutes: Searching for Evidence of “Hawkishness” In the context of several recent Federal Reserve officials adopting a “hawkish” stance and the expectation of a rate cut in December dropping below 50%, this minutes will be considered “officially certified.”

The market will focus on looking for the following clues:

Definition of the “interest rate cut threshold”: Do the committee members believe “it is almost here”, or do they think we need to see “more clear signals of economic slowdown”?

Assessment of “financial conditions”: Do they believe that the recent rise in the stock market (before the halt) has “overly eased financial conditions,” necessitating the release of hawkish signals to suppress it?

Keyword search: Look for the frequency of terms such as “above-trend growth”, “patient”, and “restrictive”.

2. Backlogged Data (Non-Farm): The Late “Heavy Punch” Although this September non-farm report is “late,” its importance remains unchanged. It will provide the market with the “real data that the Federal Reserve sees at its October meeting.”

Analysis logic:

If the data is strong: it will confirm the rationale of the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, expectations for a rate cut in December will further dissipate, the dollar will strengthen, and the crypto market will be under pressure.

If the data is weak: it will create a contradiction between “the data and the Fed's hawkish minutes.” The market may ignore the “outdated” information in the minutes and instead bet that the economic slowdown will force the Fed to shift in December.

This Week's Summary and Outlook

All in all, this week is truly a “Terrible Wednesday.”

The market's decline on Monday has reflected a deep fear of the “double whammy” (NVIDIA earnings report + Federal Reserve minutes) on Wednesday. Can the narrative of AI withstand the “judgment of performance”? Can the market's expectations for interest rate cuts withstand the scrutiny of the “hawkish minutes”?

For cryptocurrency investors, any rebound before early Wednesday may be fragile. The true bullish or bearish direction of the market will be determined by the final verdict from Nvidia and the Federal Reserve on the same day. Please fasten your seatbelt.