Ethereum Price Prediction: The ETH daily chart currently shows a bullish pattern, and a breakout above $3650 would confirm the reversal.

As of November 14, 2025, Ethereum has formed a classic bullish harami pattern on the daily chart after experiencing a 11.5% depth pullback within 24 hours, currently trading around $3,230. However, on-chain data shows that the number of Whale addresses holding over 10,000 ETH continues to decline, diverging from technical signals. Analysts point out that the support level at $3,150 and the resistance level at $3,650 will be crucial for the bulls and bears. If the $3,650 supply area (accumulating over 1.5 million ETH) is effectively broken, a mid-term rebound is expected.

ETH Technical Indicators Show Key Reversal Signals

In the trading from November 13 to 14, the Ethereum daily chart formed a special candlestick pattern—a long bearish candle on the previous day, followed by a small bullish candle completely engulfed within the range of the previous day's body. This structure is referred to in technical analysis as a “bullish harami.” This pattern typically appears at the end of a downtrend, suggesting that selling pressure is waning and buying interest is starting to emerge. It is worth noting that a similar pattern on the 5th of this month ended in failure, as subsequent buying pressure was insufficient, leading to a further price decline, which puts the reliability of the current pattern to the test.

From the analysis of trading volume, the selling pressure during the formation of this pattern is significantly lower than that of the decline in early November, while the buying participation during the rebound has increased. However, technical analysts warn that relying solely on candlestick patterns to determine trend reversals carries a high risk, and it is necessary to verify with multiple indicators such as on-chain activity and capital flow. Currently, Ethereum's short-term moving average system still shows a bearish arrangement, with the 20-day moving average ($3,400) and the 50-day moving average ($3,550) forming heavy resistance above.

Ethereum Whale Holdings Change Triggers Alarm

In stark contrast to the optimistic signals from the technical perspective, the holding behavior of Ethereum whales is conveying cautious signals. According to data from the on-chain analysis platform Santiment, the number of addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH has continuously declined after peaking on November 2. Although there was a brief recovery from November 6 to November 11, it subsequently continued on a downward path and has now fallen back to the negative growth level of November 8. This change in holdings resonates with the recent technical risks of Ethereum, which has seen a “death cross” (the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average).

In-depth analysis of Whale wallet dynamics shows that recent large transfers are mainly flowing to mainstream CEX, which may indicate that some large holders are using the rebound to reduce their positions. At the same time, the locked Ethereum volume in the DeFi sector has also seen a slight decline, indirectly confirming that institutional investors may be adjusting their allocation ratios. However, there is also a view that the reduction in Whale holdings may stem from an address diversification strategy rather than a genuine bearish outlook, so it is necessary to combine futures funding rates, options skew, and other derivative indicators for a comprehensive judgment.

Ethereum Key Price Levels and Supply-Demand Analysis

If the bullish pattern is valid, Ethereum first needs to break through the short-term resistance level of $3,333, which has suppressed rebound attempts multiple times this week. A more important test is located around $3,650, where the on-chain cost distribution heat map shows a dense supply zone in the range of $3,638 to $3,667, with over 1.5 million ETH having changed hands at this price level, indicating that this area will form strong selling pressure.

Ethereum Reversal Market Key Level

Current price: $3,230

Short-term resistance: $3,333

Key resistance area: $3,638-$3,667 (1.5 million ETH supply)

Recent support: $3,150

Invalid pattern level: $3,050

The required increase to break through $3,650: 12%

From the order book data, there are a large number of limit sell orders in the range of $3,600 to $3,700, while dense buy orders are set in the range of $3,100 to $3,200. This structure indicates that there is significant divergence in the market at the current position, and any breakout in either direction could trigger a chasing rally. It is particularly important to note that if the price falls below $3,150, the bullish pattern will quickly become invalid; and if it breaks below $3,050 with volume, it may retest the October low of around $2,800.

Ethereum Ecosystem Fundamental Support Assessment

Despite short-term price fluctuations, the fundamentals of the Ethereum network remain robust. As of November 14, the annualized transaction fee revenue of the network is maintained at $2.5 billion, and the total amount of staked ETH has surpassed 40 million, accounting for 33.5% of the total supply. The Layer 2 ecosystem continues to thrive, with the total locked value of major scaling solutions such as Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base exceeding $15 billion, representing an 8% quarter-on-quarter growth.

From the perspective of the technological development roadmap, the upcoming Prague upgrade will introduce Verkle trees and state expiration mechanisms, which are expected to further reduce node operating costs. In addition, the TVL of the restaking protocol EigenLayer has surpassed $12 billion, injecting new economic security into the Ethereum ecosystem. These fundamental factors provide long-term value support for the Ethereum price, but short-term market sentiment is still dominated by the macro environment and capital flows.

ETH Trading Strategies and Risk Management

For traders with different styles, the current market environment requires differentiated strategies. Short-term traders can focus on swing opportunities in the range of $3,150 to $3,350, setting strict stop losses below $3,100; medium-term investors are advised to wait for an effective breakthrough above $3,650 before adding positions, and if there is a volume breakout, they can look for targets as high as the range of $3,800 to $4,000.

In terms of risk management, there are two scenarios to be particularly vigilant about: first, if Bitcoin loses the key support level of $95,000, it may drag down the entire crypto market; second, if the U.S. tech sector continues to pull back, it may affect crypto assets through the transmission of risk sentiment. It is recommended that investors keep their positions within 5% of their total assets and use options protective put strategies to hedge against downside risks.

For investors who want to深入学习技术分析, understanding the main reversal patterns is crucial. In addition to the bull run孕育形态, common bottom signals include morning star, hammer, and inverted hammer. It is important to note that any technical pattern needs to meet three conditions to have high reliability: it must appear after a significant trend, have volume support, and be confirmed by subsequent candlesticks. It is recommended that novice investors analyze using multiple time frames (such as 4-hour and daily chart) to avoid overly relying on a single signal during a range-bound market.

Market Outlook

The divergence between technical indicators and on-chain data has put Ethereum at a crossroads. The bull run formation brings hope, but the cautious attitude of whales reminds us that market confidence has not fully recovered. The real test lies at $3,650—this supply zone, which has gathered 1.5 million ETH, acts as a touchstone to assess the true strength of buyers. Regardless of the outcome, this tug-of-war between bulls and bears will set the tone for the year-end market, and the next move of the leading smart contract platform is likely to become a barometer for the entire altcoin market.