Bitcoin (BTC) Hits $106K: Why the Big Rally Isn't Loaded Yet?

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $106,500 early on Monday following a trend breakout on Sunday. Can Bitcoin go higher, or are we about to see a rejection from the current position?

Back to retest the trendline or horizontal support?

Source: TradingView

It’s all pretty much in the chart as to what probably happens next. It can be seen in the 4-hour chart above that the $BTC price took a quick turn back to the upside on Sunday when it perhaps looked more likely that the price was going back to the $100,000 horizontal support level for another retest.

Instead, the price rose steadily through Sunday before breaking out of the downtrend line at the end of the day. Monday morning has seen the price rise to the $106,000 horizontal level where it is currently struggling and looking likely to reject from here.

The Stochastic RSI indicators are just starting to roll over and back down, so the likelihood is that the $BTC price could either retest the descending trendline as support, or break through, or follow it down to the major $100,000 support level.

If the bulls do manage to push the price higher from here, it just becomes further overbought and the reckoning with the bears will just have to take place a bit higher up - possibly at $110,000.

Back to test 15-month trendline before major rally?

Source: TradingView

On the daily chart one can just about see the little trend break that is currently taking place. At the bottom of the chart, the RSI indicator has also just broken through a downtrend, suggesting that there may be more longevity in this move.

However, in the bigger picture this is just a bit more noise. The $BTC price would still be expected to come down that little bit further in order to make a retest of the major ascending trendline. Once that has occurred, all the boxes would then probably be ticked and a proper strong rally could then kick off.

Hash Ribbons indicator signals something big is coming

Source: TradingView

The above weekly chart for $BTC shows the entirety of the bull market so far. A rough trendline has been drawn in order to show that three big upside price waves have taken place. It could be contended that another big price wave exists right at the beginning of the bull market, but we are generally trying to show the waves on an ascending trendline.

The vertical green dotted lines in the chart show the Hash Ribbons buy signals. These buy signals are quite rare in the weekly time frame, and it can be seen that they roughly correspond to the end of one wave and the beginning of the next

The Hash ribbons indicator tracks the network hashrate, and triggers a buy signal when Bitcoin miners capitulate, causing the hashrate to drop sharply because of unprofitably mining. This normally combines with a low price and a beginning of network recovery, which normally leads to a rally in price.

An anomaly in the chart reveals that instead of 1 or 2 buy signals in a year, 2025 has received 3 buy signals, which has never before happened in such close proximity

The significance here is that miners have restarted mining not once, but three times, suggesting an accelerated hashrate rebound, therefore a deeper capitulation, but followed by a shallower recovery time.

Is another big price wave about to form? Wouldn’t this take the price beyond the 8-year ascending trendline, and in its turn cause a huge explosive rally to the upside? This bull market may be far from over.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.